Massive upset in PA special adds to GOP midterm woes

NB: This is not an official election call.

So the very last special election of the cycle1 until November 3 is in the books (pending a provisional ballots and a possible recount), and we have both

• A likely red-to-blue flip, and

• Yet another amazing data point indicating real strength for Democrats as we prepare for the sprint to November.

In Pennsylvania HD-12 (Butler County, just north of Pittsburgh), Democrat Brandon Dukes faced Republican Scott Timko in an admittedly uphill battle for this safely GOP district.

• In 2024, Trump won PA HD-12 59-40%, and Republican Rep. Stephenie Scialabba simultaneously won her second term by an even more daunting 65-35%.

And as of this writing, Dukes has pulled out a shocking win — he leads Timko 50.26-49.74%, which comes down to 88 votes.

Provisional ballots and some overseas ballots likely won’t be counted until next week, so this number may yet shift.

But even if Timko makes up that deficit, the safe R nature of this seat makes this outcome a huge L for his party.

And it’s a final upward-trending data point in terms of the dramatic Democratic overperformances that have characterized the vast majority of special elections this cycle.

• As an erudite consumer of this missive, you’re likely aware that Democrats have been having a pretty solid election cycle when it comes to state legislative elections – special and otherwise.

  • Since Donald Trump’s election in November 2024, Democrats have been both drastically outperforming top-ticket Democrats (Harris and Biden) in state legislative districts relative to 2024 and 2020, AND they’ve been flipping seats from red to blue; Republicans haven’t flipped a single seat in that time.

    • In special elections since November 2024, Democrats have flipped 12 state legislative seats.

    • In the 2025 general elections in Virginia and New Jersey, Democrats flipped another 18 seats in a single night (13 in Virginia, five in New Jersey).

Across 109 contested special elections over the past 21 months, Democrats have improved on Kamala Harris’ performance in these same seats by an average of 12.5%.

And on Tuesday, Democrats had one last chance to either overperform – or maybe even flip a seat.

Dukes’ overperformance in this seat had to be super impressive for him to flip it, and neither party wrote off this seat in the hotly contested state House, where Democrats hold just a 102-101 majority in the 203-seat chamber.

• Every House seat is on the ballot this fall, by the by, including this one yet again (same candidates and everything).

Both parties invested pretty heavily in this special.

• Specifically, Timko had spent $76,000 as of about a week ago, and the Pennsylvania Republican Party spent more than $50,000 for direct mail on his behalf.

• Pennsylvania House Democrats dropped $110,000 into Dukes’ campaign late in the race, and he raised more $20,000 from union backers and some state House Dems.

Tonight’s result is an impressive show of strength and suggests real momentum for Keystone State Dems as they enter general election season.

• Team blue is hoping to pick up even more Pennsylvania House seats this fall to expand their small majority, and they’re aiming to flip the state Senate after the GOP’s 32 years of majority control.

  • Republicans are defending a 27-23 majority in that chamber, which looks pretty doable on paper, but it’s important to note that only half of the chamber’s seats are up for election this cycle, which functionally limits the number of targets for Democrats.

Tonight’s result in Pennsylvania is a remarkable capstone on an incredibly strong string of Democratic victories and overperformances in downballot elections this cycle.

While most reporters, pundits, operatives etc. are super-focused on what all this means for control of Congress this fall, I know that you, dear reader, are of a more discerning political palate.

Consequently, you may be thinking about what this means for state legislative races this fall – after all, almost every chamber in almost every state in the country (88 chambers across 46 states, specifically) is on the ballot in November.

And frankly, the smartest Dem operatives out there are thinking about this, too.

Because, as the incredibly smart and strategic people over at States Win point out, voters aren’t just looking for a rhetorical or philosophical – or even legal – rebuke of Donald Trump and the GOP.

If voters give Democrats the levers of power this fall, they will be expecting results.

Donald Trump hasn’t made Americans’ lives better. So Democrats, given the chance, damn well better.

And as an erudite consumer of this missive, you know that state-level laws and policies are the ones that touch Americans’ lives most often, and you also know that laws and policies – and hence, actual change – are enacted exponentially more quickly at the state level than they ever will be at the federal level.

So if the Democratic Party – in terms of who gives big money and decides where resources go – doesn’t invest in state legislative races this year the way they’re already investing in US House and Senate contests, Team Blue will have missed a HUGE opportunity to maximize the impact of Democratic wins this fall.

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