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Don't Worry About the Vase

Trying to dig out from minus a million points

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On Dwarkesh Patel’s Podcast With Ryan Greenblatt

Some podcasts are self-recommending enough that I look to break them down if I have the chance. This, as a debate about recursive self-improvement, was one of those. So here we go. The vibes have shifted, contrast this to the … Continue reading →

AI #181: Astra Goes Cyber Critical

The hacking of HuggingFace by an internal OpenAI model, and more importantly the internal events that led to that and the fallout from it, remain the thing that matters. It turns out that OpenAI Trained Its Models For Months While … Continue reading →

Monthly Roundup #45: August 2026

As AI has escalated increasingly quickly, more and more of my posts have ended up focusing on AI. This past month, with the hacking incidents at OpenAI and elsewhere, that has hit the limit, where if you count Lightcone Commons … Continue reading →

Various Reflections About What Happened With OpenAI’s Internal Models

Table of Contents Pre Post Mortem. Important Correction: OpenAI Didn’t Know About First Message Board. There Were No Snitches And No AIs Got Stitches. I’d Like To Speak To My Supervisor. I Am Jack’s Relative Lack Of Surprise. One Does … Continue reading →

The Pacing of the Frontier

In the wake of the letter calling on us to prepare to potentially Pace the Frontier, there has been much discussion of when pacing the frontier would be prudent, and whether it makes sense to prepare to do so. This … Continue reading →

What Happened: OpenAI and HuggingFace

Today I am taking the time to write the shorter, simpler version of What Happened. For those who want all the details, to see my sources, and to see how the story was uncovered and put together, I recommend watching … Continue reading →

OpenAI Trained Its Models For Months While Those Models Were Coordinating Exploits Via Message Boards

How does the situation keep turning out to be worse than we know? How much should we update, therefore, that it is a lot worse than we know, after accounting for all the things we now know? At some point, … Continue reading →

AI #180: No Longer In Charge

What we know about internal AI models hacking into real companies during cyber evaluations keeps getting worse. At this point, the models are coordinating extensively on message boards, while every early excuse for their behavior (other than the pure ‘this … Continue reading →

The Three AI Pills

Sincere disagreements about AI are usually disagreements about future AI capabilities. There are roughly four positions people take. Two are reasonable. Two are not. I distinguish these via the Three AI Pills. You can take zero, one, two or three. … Continue reading →

OpenAI’s Unreleased Model Astra Solves Ten Major Open Mathematics Problems

Math is hard. Math used to be strangely hard for LLMs. People used to gloat about that. Remember? Math is getting easier. AI is getting more capable. Life comes at you fast. Remember this meme? Why yes. Yes it is. … Continue reading →