August 10th: Current Market Status

Hey Guys!

The market has been chopping around since last Wednesday.

Volume has been abysmal - lower than even Christmas Eve.

For now, the market is digesting the recent gains as it remains on an Hourly Sell Signal that triggered before market open this morning.

Today’s close was $SPX 7,753.

The top of the year-long wedge is currently 7,850. But as we move into September the wedge top opens up to the 7,900s.

My Turn Dates remain: August 21st, September 2nd and September 17th.

Expectations continue to be high for earnings this quarter, which is why we are seeing many stocks sell-off after reporting.

RKLB 0.00%↑ Currently down almost 7% after hours after reporting a moderate beat in earnings. They posted record quarterly revenue of $234 million, which is +62% YoY and sequential growth that beat estimates. The company reported a net loss of $0.08 per share, which was wider than expectations. Backlog reached a new record of $2.36 billion, which is +137% YoY, very strong. RKLB also has over $1 billion in new contracts already signed in early Q3.

Q3 2026 guidance calls for another record revenue quarter of $250–265 million, also above consensus, but with lower gross margins of GAAP 29–31%.

ASTS 0.00%↑ Holding a bit better, down 2% after hours, reporting solid progress on their buildout. Revenue came in at $31.5 million, below consensus estimates of $35M. They maintained their full-year 2026 revenue guidance of $150–200 million and reported an increased revenue backlog of approximately $1.30 billion, which is a strong number.

Partnerships expanded to over 60 mobile network operators covering more than 3 billion subscribers - fantastic news. They expect to launch beta commercial service with select partners later in 2026.

We will look to take a swing long once the market pulls back enough to trigger a more powerful move higher.

At some point I expect the QQQ’s to sweep last Thursday’s low of 708, at which point I expect a stronger move higher which we can swing long.

One thing to keep in mind is the dynamic I talked about in the weekend SubStack, if bonds continue to put pressure on the market, P/Es of all stocks will compress, but tech stocks will get hit the hardest.

I mention that now because the reaction to earnings is providing us clues as to how comfortable the market is with current valuations.

For now I remain bullish. The Quant will tell us when to flip bearish.

Lots of love.

God Bless and be safe,

-ST