TradeGateHub Coach Dale Pinkert was back with us on Talking Markets yesterday. ( Katie Stockton, CMT, your ears must have been burning, he said you’re a rock star.)
Let’s dig in…
Last week, Dale said he’d need to see WTI close over $89-$90 before he’d think we were going to new highs. That hasn’t happened yet, though it’s certainly in a climb, fueled by the fragile situation in the Strait of Hormuz, and now, the Red Sea.
“It looks like do or die here,” Dale said of the WTI chart. “We’ve attacked major resistance at $88.”
For context, Dale had bought WTI under $70 and got out a little over $80. Now, he said: “Here, I’d certainly be taking partials in case this is just a bear market rally, despite the news… If you’re bullish, I think there’s going to be a pullback to buy it. I wouldn’t chase it up here, unless you get a real solid close over $90, then something else is going on.”
In Dale’s Discord room (you can join for free here), he said on Sunday he talked about trying the long side as gold had started making higher lows over the previous few days, “so I thought we could get a rally to $4,150-$4,200.” As of yesterday (Wednesday), he thinks if people got into that trade they should consider “taking partials and snugging up their stops.”
In the coming days, if we start closing over the $4,160 level (one of the blue lines in the chart above), Dale thinks that “opens the door to $4,400.” But there still is a chance that this rally is “pretty much it,” and “there still is a chance for one more marginal new low into August.”
Silver has also picked up, but Dale isn’t convinced we’ve seen the lows. “Gold looks better than silver as far as I’m concerned,” he said. “And the gold/silver ratio still hasn’t gotten above 80, which is my long term target I’ve been talking about for weeks.”
Last week, looking at the 10-year yield, Dale thought “we were on the verge of rolling over,” he said yesterday. “And here we are testing the high in the 10-year. I was wrong about lower rates, at least so far.”
We’re seeing new highs in 2-year yields too, while TLT “is holding on by its fingernails,” Dale said. “We’ll need a pullback in energy for us to have any relief.”
Dale flagged the break in Micron last week, and ended up covering his short positions in semis on Friday and Tuesday. Now, he said, he’d like to see Micron back up to $1,100 i he market keeps rallying, in order to “lay my shorts back out again, because I don’t think [we’ve seen] the bottom… I’m looking at this as turning into a failing rally.”
More broadly, Dale said: “When you’re talking about the market in terms of relative strength, S&Ps have been much stronger, because they’re not as heavily tech weighted, especially against the Nasdaq 100.”
Side note: ICYMI, Google reported better-than-expected Q2 revenue yesterday, but (as Dr Divergence flagged in the live chat), the stock traded down in extended trading thanks to an increase in capex forecast. However, Dale said the chart looks “constructive,” although he sees better opportunities elsewhere.
Dale’s been right on ags for months, and the trade is far from over. Here’s wheat:
As Dale first said on Talking Markets at the start of the year, he sees wheat as the “silver of the grain complex,” and right now, it’s going through a weekly breakout. “If we start to fail here (green candle in chart above), tighten up your stops,” he said. But he still thinks it can get up to $9.
Elsewhere, “beans in the teens are on deck,” corn is “on the verge of breaking out,” and sugar is looking “okay.” Cocoa has been slammed but Dale would “buy breaks.”
“We held Monday’s low, and this is hopeful,” Dale said. “It’s a good close, nice action… Maybe there’ll be a rotation out of WTI into nat gas.”
“The preferred long between Bitcoin and Ethereum would be Ethereum for me,” Dale said. “[The chart] has a much better look… Bitcoin’s had a nice bounce, but if I’m right about a lot of liquidation happening in August, I think that for Bitcoin, the bottom was not $57,000. It’s only 10 grand away from the low now. Bitcoin could do that in a week.”
Thank you to everyone who tuned in live! We’ll be back Talking Markets on Monday, July 27, with the great Michele 'Mish' Schneider.
Important Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and should not be considered investment advice. Consult with a qualified financial advisor to assess your risk tolerance, investment goals, and overall financial plan.
Comments
Nothing yet. Say the first thing.
Sign in to join the conversation.