"Putin Would Be Nuts to Attack NATO"

You can listen to this episode on Spotify, Apple Podcasts, and other listening apps.

Watch episodes of The Long Game on YouTube.

A NOTE FROM THE PRODUCER

Tamara Sepper is the Executive Producer of The Long Game.

This week on The Long Game, Jake Sullivan and Jon Finer examine the future of European security with one of the continent’s most experienced—and most candid—foreign-policy voices.

Polish Deputy Prime Minister and Foreign Minister Radosław “Radek” Sikorski joins the show as the Pentagon begins reviewing the future of the US military presence in Europe, Russia intensifies its hybrid campaign against NATO countries, and Ukraine seeks to turn battlefield momentum into lasting strategic gains.

Sikorski’s argument is blunt: Europe should be capable of deterring Vladimir Putin largely on its own. The US will remain essential for intelligence, equipment, logistics, and other strategic support—but Europeans can no longer assume Washington will carry primary responsibility for their conventional defense.

The wide-ranging conversation covers key questions, including:

• Can NATO deter Russia if the U.S. reduces its military presence in Europe?

• Would Washington respond if Russian sabotage or a false-flag attack triggered an Article 5 crisis?

• How could Ukraine translate its current position into a durable victory?

• Is President Trump moving toward stronger support for Ukraine and tougher sanctions on Russia?

• How close is Putin to exhausting the resources needed to sustain the war?

• Does China have any incentive to force Russia to end the war?

• What would Ukraine need to do before joining the European Union?

After the interview, Jake and Jon reflect on what Sikorski did—and did not—say about America’s commitment to NATO. They also recall a tense moment during their time in government, when a missile landed in Poland and killed two people, briefly raising the possibility that Russia had struck NATO territory and the alliance’s collective-defense commitment could be tested.

For paid subscribers, Jake and Jon break down the rationale for FCC’s new restrictions on foreign-made humanoid robots and connected power inverters. We’ll be posting that segment Thursday afternoon.

We love hearing your thoughts. Please comment below or email Jake and Jon at longgame@voxmedia.com.

Transcripts here.

• “Never Again,” Again, Radosław Sikorski, Project Syndicate, December 15, 2025.

• “Pentagon launches review that could reshape US military presence in Europe,” John Vandiver, Stars and Stripes, July 28, 2026.

• “Information of the Minister of Foreign Affairs on the Tasks of Polish Foreign Policy in 2026,” Radosław Sikorski, Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Republic of Poland, February 26, 2026.

• Photo by Wojtek Radwanski/AFP via Getty Images

Share