In this edition of the Indian Radius, we discuss French President Macron’s visit to India and assess what the elections in Bangladesh herald for India’s regional engagement strategy.
Petit à petit, l’oiseau fait son nid is a French proverb that means little by little, the bird builds its nest. The phrase captures how sustained, incremental efforts ultimately shape larger outcomes. With France, the nest is steadily expanding and only getting stronger. With Bangladesh, by contrast, it must be carefully rebuilt, step by step, amid political flux.
Overturning Dhaka’s Disappointment
Bangladesh finally has an elected leader. The Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP), led by Tarique Rahman, secured a sweeping majority, winning 212 out of 299 seats. This returns the BNP to power after 20 years.
The Awami League was banned from participating in this election following the ouster of Sheikh Hasina in 2024. For the first time, the Jamaat-e-Islami-led 11-party alliance has emerged as the principal opposition, winning 77 seats.
Nobel Laureate Muhammad Yunus, who served as Chief Adviser of the interim government for 18 months, officially resigned this week. The BNP government has reiterated its intent to seek the extradition of Sheikh Hasina from India to face trial for crimes against humanity.
In this backdrop of deteriorating ties with India, both China and Pakistan moved fast to consolidate their positions as regional partners, becoming the primary benefactors of the interim period.
Just days before the election, China signed a deal to build a drone factory in Bangladesh near the Indian border. They remain the primary supplier for the military, providing roughly 72% of Bangladesh’s arms.
In March 2025, Bangladesh signed a government-to-government agreement with China for the $400 million expansion of Mongla Port, Bangladesh’s second-largest seaport. China is replacing India in the project management and expansion of the port, which was previously part of a line of credit from India’s EXIM Bank.
Beyond port expansion, Chinese companies are investing in industrial zones near Mongla, including textile and battery manufacturing, integrating the area into Chinese supply chains. The deal challenges India’s strategic, economic, and security interests in the Bay of Bengal.
Relations with Pakistan have seen a historic warming. Dhaka is in active talks with Islamabad to purchase the JF-17 Thunder fighter jets (jointly developed by China and Pakistan). For 15 years, India enjoyed a special relationship with Dhaka. Now, that calculus has changed. The prospect of a Chinese drone factory and Pakistani jets on its eastern border is a serious strategic concern for New Delhi’s security establishment.
Restoring trust with Bangladesh after the 2026 election is perhaps India’s most complex diplomatic challenge in the neighbourhood. The perception that India unconditionally backed the previous regime has left a legacy of deep-seated public resentment.
In order to restore trust among the wider community, India must start by removing barriers for businesses to trade. Creating a buffer through stronger economic interdependence will mitigate the volatility created by political friction. To that end, India should focus on
Fast-tracking the Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement (CEPA). As Bangladesh graduates from Least Developed Country status later in the year, it loses many global trade preferences. The CEPA would give Bangladeshi goods duty-free access to the Indian market, helping stabilise their economy.
India remains a vital supplier of power and fuel. Ensuring a steady, non-political supply of essential commodities like cotton, sugar, and electricity reaffirms India’s standing as a reliable partner.
Indian diplomats should continue engaging directly with a wider spectrum of society, including the BNP leadership, civil society, and even segments of the student movements, to reduce the perception of partisan proximity.
Mise en Place
French President Emmanuel Macron is currently on an official three-day visit to India, resulting in the elevation of their ties to a “Special Global Strategic Partnership.” (with the addition of special and global)
This upgrade essentially signals a deeper level of coordination on global security, economic stability, and the Indo-Pacific region. The meeting itself focused heavily on high-tech innovation, defence manufacturing, and artificial intelligence.
The key highlights from the joint statement are:
The two leaders established a new Annual Foreign Ministers Dialogue, regularly reviewing the progress of bilateral cooperation in the areas of economic security and people-to-people exchanges.
The India-France Year of Innovation 2026 initiative was inaugurated to foster collaboration between startups, researchers, and industries in sectors like healthcare, sustainable development, and cyberspace.
President Macron participated in the AI Impact Summit 2026 held in New Delhi, building on previous AI cooperation frameworks established in Paris.
Both nations signed a “Joint Declaration of Intent” to cooperate on the supply chain of critical minerals and rare earths.
The biggest takeaways have been on defence cooperation:
A joint venture was signed between Bharat Electronics Limited (BEL) and Safran to manufacture Hammer missiles in India.
The leaders virtually inaugurated the H125 Final Assembly Line in Karnataka (a Tata-Airbus collaboration), which is the first private-sector helicopter manufacturing facility in India.
Discussions continued regarding the procurement of 26 Rafale-Marine jets and the potential manufacture of additional Rafale jets with increased indigenous content.
Defence cooperation has long been a central pillar of the relationship. With a Strategic Defence Partnership taking shape with the European Union, pathways for joint production, extending beyond the Indian market to exports for third countries, are set to become smoother. This is precisely the direction President Emmanuel Macron underscored in his speech
“In the field of defence, France is a steadfast partner of Make in India. Our high-level cooperation allows us to develop next-generation engines, multi-role helicopters, advanced combat aircraft, submarines, etc. And I want to thank you warmly for the extraordinary confidence you’ve placed in this partnership. And this is not just a defence contract, but a series of defence contracts. We speak about what a sovereign alliance is. Two great nations choosing each other on land, at sea, and in the sky, not by default but by conviction.”
What We’re Reading and Listening to
[Report] As countries compete to lead in AI, read the latest State of AI Governance Report to understand what’s working, what’s shifting, and what’s coming next
[Opinion] Read Bharath Reddy’s piece in the India World magazine, on India’s AI Ambitions And The Power Politics Behind Them
[Podcast] Listen to this episode of All Things Policy where Arindam Goswami and Ashwin Prasad discuss how India should architect sectoral plurilateral blocs to hedge against geopolitical risks.
Thank you for reading this edition of the Indian Radius.
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