Truths for New Zealand
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Full data graphs, notes, links, and analysis will be added following the launch of Jacinda: The Untold Stories on Friday, 7 November. Subscribe to get those updates, and visit www.JacindaBook.com for more information. ... Did we make a mistake, or have you got smarter data? Let us know.
KEY INSIGHTS Based on this research by Curia, when it comes to the support : opposition ratios for each of the three proposed Treaty Principles: ALL NEW ZEALANDERS = 1.9, 1.7, & 4.4x more support than opposition for the three respective principles (average 2.7, median 1.9). This is consistent with the 2:1 support ratio shown [...]
INSIGHTS Based on the Electoral Commission's Official Result for the Tāmaki Makaurau (Auckland) Māori seat in the 2023 General Election Takutai Kemp (TPM) beat Peeni Henare (Labour) by just 42 votes (0.16%) after specials came in. However, at Manurewa Marae, one of more than 300 polling booths where candidate votes were recorded for this seat, [...]
INSIGHTS Based on the April to August 2024 research released in January 2025 by Ipsos and commissioned by 8 City Councils (Auckland, Hamilton, Tauranga, Hutt City, Porirua, Wellington, Christchurch, and Dunedin): 27% trust the media (~1/4) 25% are neutral 48% mistrust the media (~half) This is lower than the 33% (1/3) media trust result from AUT's [...]
TRUST INSIGHTS Based on the Nov 2023 and Dec 2024 research by Horizon and commissioned by the Human Rights Commission: No organisation is trusted by more than 50% of the population to provide accurate information on the Treaty/Te Tiriti. Overall, trust scores increased 15% on average in 2024. This goes against the trend of declining [...]
KEY INSIGHTS Based on four Taxpayers' Union Curia Polls from September to December 2024, and comparing political party preference vs how those same voters rate the best political party performers across nine key issues: National polls 38%, but is rated 48% by us for their performance. In other words, if we voted based on how [...]
KEY INSIGHTS Based on this aggregation of 76 publically available polls from the 25th of January 2023 to the 4th of December 2024: National is trending down ↓ (but was under-polled before and after the election) ACT steady NZ First steady Overall, the Coalition is trending down ↓ Labour is trending up ↑ Greens down ↓ (and [...]
KEY INSIGHTS Based on this research by Curia, when it comes to the latest wording in the proposed Treaty Principles Bill, the support-to-oppose ratios (which are the most important measure in general elections and also should a yes/no referendum occur), are: New Zealand voters = 1.8 : 1 46% support/25% oppose, 29% unsure (was 3.3:1, [...]
KEY INSIGHTS Based on this research by Curia and commissioned by the Taxpayers' Union, when it comes to the proposed Treaty Principles Bill: 60% of New Zealand voters support it, 18% oppose it, and 22% are unsure (a 3.3 : 1 support to oppose ratio) 66% of National voters support it, 15% oppose, 19% unsure [...]
KEY INSIGHT Based on these polls, 4-5:1 more Kiwis oppose than support transgender athletes being allowed to play in female sports. KEY QUESTION Given these 2 consistent polling results from 2 of New Zealand's leading research agencies, why have most media stories not cited these numbers? Do you agree with the majority of Kiwis on this [...]
