ACX 2025 Prediction Contest Retrospective
TL;DR
The Dissonance
Thinking slightly better by writing things down.
Latest posts
ACX 2026 Prediction Contest
My notes from doing the contest first, then some thoughts on this year’s competition. Thanks to Metaculus for organizing!
Imagining life expectancy distributed geometrically
CW: Discussion of death, dying, and assisted suicide.
Not on my 2025 Bingo Card
A collection of all the weird things that happened in 2025 that took me by surprise. The list is shorter than I expected, which surely implies that I have very good world models and has nothing to do with the amount of care I gave this list throughout the year
Glycine Experiment Results (Science is still hard)
Previously, on Science is Hard Data sanitation is a pain QoL metrics What impact does glycine have on QoL metrics? Takeaways A long long time ago, towards the end of 2024, me and two friends ran a self-experiment on the impact of glycine on sleep quality. Life has been busy, but time has finally come to publish the results. Science is hard continues to be the motto of this endeavor, the long and…
Why My Donation Target is in Terms of Inflows, not Outflows
On why specifically something silly I was doing was silly.
AI Quick Takes
I have some thoughts on AI which don’t warrant their individual posts, so I’ve collected them here. Privacy Vol Taste Linguistic cooling Privacy I think we’re mostly past the point where people would seriously say that they don’t need privacy if they have nothing to hide. But I think there is a core there that many still find persuasive: It’s okay for my personal information to be collected.…
K8s at Home With k3s
Hardware OS Configuration RAID Hostname Global ssh access K3s Installation Access Applications Deployment Ingress Persistence Nextcloud details What’s next? Disclaimer: In this post, I discuss hosting applications in a home setting. I haven’t done any security hardening yet, so don’t rely on instructions given here to build a system that has to process sensitive information. I have wanted to host…
Being Productive on Windows
Window management Consistently focusing applications with keyboard shortcuts Alt-tabbing backwards Options which I haven’t explored WSL2 If you use WSL, this one is very important: Virtual drive compacting Nonstandard distributions Increasing accessible resources Exclude %PATH% from $PATH Clipboard in neovim Low latency terminal emulation Tmux Remote desktop connection Windows Configuration…
An Actual AI-Timelines Model
How long until all jobs automated? Capabilities Compute Adoption Overall How likely is an existential catastrophe in the 5 years after they’re at the any-(white-collar)-job-level? AI vs humans Humans + AI vs humans Using this model I’ve just returned from LWCW2025 . One thing that kept coming up was people’s AI timelines. I decided to finally write down an explicit model. About half an afternoon’s…