NFC South

Over the halfway point of NFL writeups and what better way to celebrate than with the worst division in football.

It’s not even an argument. Against teams outside NFC South they have posted a .375 win rate over the last 4 years!

The Panthers walked away as Champions last year with 8 wins, the 2nd time in the last 4 years that the winner of this division finished under .500.

Give me slop!

• Buccaneers +200

• Saints +250

• Falcons +310

• Panthers +320

2025 Record: 8-9

2026 Win Total: 7.5

SB Odds: +7500

Only in Atlanta could you fire a coach who went 16-18 in his last 2 seasons and hire a guy who went 8-26 in the same timeframe.

The Raheem Morris experiment is over. The Kirk Cousins rental expired.

But are Falcons fans supposed to be excited about Kevin Stefanski and Tua Tagovailoa?

Atlanta won 4 straight to end the season, but it’s no cause for optimism.

They didn’t do much in free agency and didn’t have a 1st round draft pick.

Now the Falcons enter 2026 favored in 2 games for the season.

Jalon Walker was injured in pre-season and is out for the season. James Pearce Jr was the rookie sack leader, but he was involved with three felony charges. Although the chargers didn’t stick, he is still under investigation from the NFL and will miss time with a suspension.

Ian Rapoport@RapSheet

#Falcons edge James Pearce Jr. is suspended for the club’s first eight regular season games without pay for violating the NFL’s Personal Conduct Policy.

7:08 PM · Aug 14, 2026 · 749K Views

181 Replies · 355 Reposts · 4.54K Likes

Last year was a story of two halves. In the first half of games they led opponents by 32 points, in the second half they trailed by 71.

The problem with the Falcons is they have so much sex appeal it feels silly to fade them. Bijan is arguably the best RB in football. Kyle Pitts led the team in targets, receptions, and yards. Drake London is awesome. The offensive line is one of the best in the NFL.

Tua or Penix is the big question entering the season. Right now it looks like Tua will be the Week 1 guy as Penix is still recovering from an ACL tear in Week 11 - his 3rd ACL tear! I personally don’t think it matters who wins the job, neither is a viable option for the future but I do like Tua since this is about as low as his stock can get. He has the weapons around him and he’ll be playing in a dome at home which suits him.

The defense is another story. They have a very bad front 7 and the secondary isn’t much better. Jeff Ulbrich returns as DC and I do think he can do a good job, but the lack of talent is a massive challenge to overcome.

Atlanta plays one of the tough schedules in the NFL. I’ll be honest a small part of me really wants to take Tua to be comeback player of the year. The narrative would be fantastic considering we all watched him nearly die on the field and lose more brain cells than a frat boy with a fresh can of whip-its.

But if I really have to put my money on anything it would be the under. Their schedule, the lack of defense, the inflated win total from a few big name skill positions… yeah it’s the under.

The Picks:

Falcons Under 7.5 Wins -140 (Greg)

2025 Record: 8-9

2026 Win Total: 7.5

SB Odds: +10000

Lose the battle, win the war.

Carolina lost to the Bucs in Week 18, but due to a three way tie for the division they advanced.

Winning the division was a massive accomplishment for Dave Canales and Bryce Young, but this isn’t your normal division and they advanced with a 8-9 record losing 3 of 4 down the stretch.

To me this team screams regression. They had the 4th worst point differential in the NFC. They went 7-3 in one score games. They lost six games by double digits and only won one. As of now, they will play the 3rd toughest schedule. They have ranked dead last in pressure rate for the 3rd straight season (Clevanalytics)!

Before we write them off for dead, let’s not forget they were incredibly close to beating the Rams at home in the Playoffs. Tetairoa McMillain won OROY and Jalen Coker started to show some flashes late in the season. They made some big moves on defense as well, adding Jaelan Phillips and Devin Lloyd.

Film Watchers@Filmwatchers1

The signing of Devin Lloyd changed the entire landscape of this Panthers defense

10:25 PM · Mar 14, 2026 · 42.5K Views

17 Replies · 85 Reposts · 1.03K Likes

Dave Canales is doing a fantastic job considering the mess he walked into. They have a quality offensive line and drafted Monroe Freeling (T - Georgia) in the 1st round. It’s anyone’s guess what Bryce Young looks like this year, but it’s probably going to teeter between slightly below and slightly above average. Chubba Hubbard is another guy I’m ice cold on. I know Jonathan Brooks gets a lot of love but he’s only had 9 carries over the last 2 years.

Yet another issue for Carolina is at TE. A lot of teams are transitioning to multiple TE sets to create mismatches and the Panthers haven’t had someone reliable at the position since Greg Olson. Signing Darren Waller this week tells me they recognized the problem, but couldn’t do anything about it.

The schedule isn’t doing them any favors as they will play the 3rd toughest with an early Week 5 BYE. I’ll tease a map play, because why not! Week 13 at Minnesota. Coming off a short week MNF game at Tampa it will be their 3rd road game in 4 weeks. Love the Vikings already.

I’m trying to be cautious. Just because this is a terrible division you could make a case to fade every team, but I don’t think I can avoid the regression spot for Carolina. But the boys are split on this one.

The Picks:

Bryce Young Over 20.5 TD Passes -110 (Jeff Sunday)

Panthers Over 7.5 +115 (Steak)

Panthers Under 7.5 -135 (Greg)

2025 Record: 6-11

2026 Win Total: 7.5 Wins

SB Odds: +8000

Tyler Shough welcome to the NFL!

Silly old me faded the Saints last year, only to get burned when Shough came in and went 5-4 winning 4 of his last 5.

After starting 2-10 the Saints tore through a weak schedule to end the year and it’s leading to a lot of hype in New Orleans.

They made some nice moves in free agency. Improving the O-line, getting Kaden Ellis at LB, and signing Travis Etienne. Kamara had career lows in rushing yards, yards/attempt, and receptions. Something had to be done.

There is serious hype around Jordan Tyson, their 1st rounder out of Arizona State. Olave needs a guy to line up next to him and the additional weapon will help Shough too.

Last year the Saints had a brutal combo of being dead last in red-zone TD rate and FG %. On top of that their opponents went 10 for 10 on FG’s that were 50+ (Clevanalytics). I expect both of those to improve, because how can they not?

Brandon Staley is another guy who fits the script of a terrible head coach, good coordinator. The Saints defense was surprisingly solid considering their front 7 is weak and their secondary is average at best.

Tyler Shough was a 26 years old rookie and the Saints are doing what they can to give him the weapons to take a jump in year two. Kellen Moore did a very good job with him and it looks like they are ready to take the step from NFC South doormat to contender.

Football Performances@NFLPerformances

Rookie Tyler Shough.

5:04 PM · Jun 13, 2026 · 250K Views

39 Replies · 312 Reposts · 3.55K Likes

They’ll need all the help they can get since they went 0-6 against teams with a winning record, but the 2nd easiest schedule in the NFL is a massive boost.

As you can see we are split, but if you like the Saints like I do it makes sense to wait and take them live after opening the season with road games at Detroit and Baltimore.

The Picks:

Tyler Shough Under 19.5 Passing TD’s +100 (Jeff Sunday)

Saints Under 7.5 +100 (Jeff Sunday and Steak)

2025 Record: 8-9

2026 Win Total: 8.5 Wins

SB Odds: +5000

All good things must come to an end. The Bucs missed the Playoffs for the first time in five years in dramatic fashion.

After Starting 6-2, injuries piled up, and they closed 2-7.

How Todd Bowles is still employed is beyond me. He’s supposed to be a defensive guy and defense is the weakness. They were the worst D in red zone performance last year. They went 0-8 in games they trailed at the half. They had the fewest sacks for a Buccaneers defense in almost a decade. It goes on and on and on. He somehow managed to run a high risk, low reward strategy. Blitzing like crazy, and getting no results.

From a personnel standpoint they should be better, even though longtime leader, Lavonte David, retired and they didn’t re-sign Jamel Dean.

They made some nice moves adding A’Shawn Robinson (DL) and Alex Anzalone (LB). Reuben Bain Jr. (EDGE - Miami) fell to them in the 1st round and looks like a monster. They’ll pair him with Josiah Trotter (LB - West Virginia). The Vita Vea Trade request feels like a bluff, but time will tell. If it materializes the Bucs could be in trouble.

Check the Mic with Steve Palazzolo & Sam Monson@CTM_Show

“I think Reuben Bain Jr. is the strongest EDGE prospect I’ve ever scouted… once or twice a game, he has a rep where he does something crazy.” 😳 Mike Renner explains 👇

9:32 PM · Feb 28, 2026 · 149K Views

17 Replies · 122 Reposts · 1.02K Likes

Take a bow, Mike Evans. What a career in Tampa, even though he left for the 49ers they still have Egbuka and Godwin. Egbuka was on his way to a huge year, but he had a hammy injury in Week 6 and never came close to what he did early in the season. Godwin has been bit bad by the injury bug the last 3 years, and needs a bounce back in a big way.

Bucky Irving is yet another guy they need to stay healthy, but they added Kenneth Gainwell just in case he doesn’t.

And you can’t talk about the Bucs without getting into the Baker Mayfield roller coaster. Playing injured cost him the job in Cleveland. Last year was bad down the stretch, and he was doing the same thing. I get it, what are you going to do? Roll out Teddy Bridgewater? He gave them the best chance to win, but Baker was battling ankle, knee, oblique, and shoulder injuries and didn’t look right. Insanity that this will be his 9th OCs in 9 years. It’s a contract year, and the man needs to get paid.

Zac Robinson (OC) should have this offense looking much more like 2023/2024 than last year’s mess with Josh Gizzard. Robinson and Baker spent some time together in LA, and he feels like the right guy to get him back on track.

When everyone is sleeping on the division favorite is usually the time to strike, but we all agree - investing in Todd Bowles isn’t where we want to be.

Tampa Bay was the worst team against the spread in 2025, but that’s bad news from last year. These types of teams tend to offer value in the following season, but none of us can pull the trigger.

The Picks:

Reuben Bain Over 6.5 Sacks -120 (Jeff Sunday)

Baker Mayfield Over 3500.5 Passing Yards -120 (Steak)

Reuben Bain DROY +500 (Greg)

• Falcons Under 7.5 Wins (-140)

• Bryce Young Over 20.5 TD Passes -110 (Jeff Sunday)

• Panthers Over 7.5 +115 (Steak)

• Panthers Under 7.5 -135 (Greg)

• Tyler Shough Under 19.5 Passing TD’s +100 (Jeff Sunday)

• Saints Under 7.5 +100 (Jeff Sunday and Steak)

• Reuben Bain Over 6.5 Sacks -120 (Jeff Sunday)

• Baker Mayfield Over 3500.5 Passing Yards -120 (Steak)

• Reuben Bain DROY +500 (Greg)

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