When history fails you, borrow from geography

This page did not load. You can still read it on the original site — the toolbar below keeps your place in the directory.

How Airbnb used sequential geographic recovery signals and prior propagation to generate reliable corridor-level forecasts when local data was scarce. By: Harrison Katz The problem with unprecedented shocks Almost every forecasting system is built on the same implicit assumption: the future will resemble the past. You train on historical data, you validate on holdout periods, and you trust that…

Read on medium.com ↗