Visions of the Fall

Inflation just gave us another stink burger. CPI was right on expectations, PPI came in softer than expected, and the bond market is sitting at the lows of its range.

So why isn’t everybody celebrating? Because oil isn’t cooperating.

The crack spread is at $65. Diesel and jet fuel are both ripping higher. Refineries are running at full capacity, and then you’ll see “the fall season is taking shape”.
The Fed can manage the numbers. It can’t manage demand.

And that may be the story that matters when everyone gets back from the beach.

• The Bond Market Is Bottled Up: Yields remain near the lows of the recent range, giving equities room to keep running as long as rates stay contained.

• Inflation Is Still Behaving: July CPI came in right around expectations while PPI was softer than expected, keeping headline inflation contained for now.

• Energy Is Sending a Warning: The crack spread has climbed to $65, while diesel and jet fuel jumped 8% and 7% this week. Refined-product demand is keeping pressure on the inflation outlook.

• Refiners Are on Fire: Refineries continue making new highs as capacity remains tight and demand for refined products stays strong.

• Tech Got Its Groove Back: The Nasdaq is up again this week after holding moving-average support, with cloud storage, cybersecurity, software, and internet stocks all participating.

• Semis Have Company: Technology leadership is broadening as cybersecurity and software join semiconductors in the fight for market leadership.

• Precious Metals: The metal continues to benefit from the long-term problems created by currency debasement.

• The Bull Market Still Has Room: As long as yields remain contained and inflation stays manageable, Tony sees the stock market continuing to party.

• The Fall Is Taking Shape: The market is beginning to price a combination of technology and energy strength, with healthcare emerging as another potential beneficiary of the AI investment cycle.

The market spoke to us, so the View Matrix changed. Make sure you have adjusted your portfolio in a way that makes you feel good.

I’m adding __________ because I like the pullback to the 61.8% FIBO retracement and its performance off the lows this week.

I’m adding ____________ because they seem to love Kevin Warsh at the Fed and so do I.

We’re adding one pullback trade and one breakout trade so they can both perform.
These trades are more about WHEN I am buying them than WHERE I am buying them.

I lowered our STOP LOSS in __________ in case they continue to rally through resistance.
This morning’s price action is demonstrating why we UPSIZED our _____________ trade.