TAKE AN ORDER

The S&P got hit yesterday.
The Nasdaq got hit harder.
Russell got hit hardest.

Then the market opened today and tried to bounce.

But I’m watching the 30-year Treasury. Because yesterday’s Bessent relief didn’t last very long. The long bond is back around 5.25%, almost exactly where the market decided to test the government’s new line in the sand.

If 5.25% holds, equities get some breathing room.

If the long end blows through it, we’re going to have a very different conversation.

And while everyone is watching the bond market, gold is sitting around the 200-day moving average, Bitcoin has cleared its 200-day, and oil is still trading in the mid-$80s with Hormuz unresolved.

• The Long Bond Is Pushing Back: The initial Treasury-buyback relief has faded quickly, with long-term yields moving back toward their recent highs.

• Stocks Are Trying to Repair the Damage: After Thursday’s selloff, equities are attempting to stabilize.

• Gold Is Holding Its Technical Structure: Gold continues to find buyers around an important long-term support area as the dollar softens and the rates debate intensifies.

• Bitcoin cleared a critical resistance level: Bitcoin has moved back above its long-term trend support and is responding to the same currency and liquidity debate driving precious metals.

• Oil Refuses to Roll Over: Crude remains elevated as the Strait of Hormuz situation stays unresolved. The energy trade still has a fundamental reason to exist.

• Refining Margins Remain Strong: Refining economics continue to support energy equities, keeping the sector attractive even as parts of the broader market struggle.

• Financials Are Feeling the Pressure: Higher long-term yields are weighing on financials after the sector had begun showing signs of leadership.

• Technology Has Something to Prove: Semiconductors and mega-cap technology are attempting to recover after Thursday’s selling. Until leadership is restored, the market needs to treat the weakness seriously.