The Italian Open is here, and just like the Madrid Open, the men’s event could follow a familiar script.
Subscribe to our YT channel for regular tennis stories and previews here
Interested in cricket? Our favourite cricket YT channel here
The women’s draw, however, was a different story altogether in Madrid. One upset followed another, producing unexpected semifinalists and finalists.
Marta Kostyuk claimed her maiden WTA 1000 title and will be eager to keep that purple patch going in Rome.
Runner-up Mirra Andreeva and semifinalist Anastasia Potapova have also been in outstanding form recently. Both were finalists in Linz earlier this year, so expect them to carry that momentum into Rome and test the top seeds.
For Aryna Sabalenka, Elena Rybakina and the rest of the leading names, the challenge will be to bounce back quickly and find rhythm ahead of the Roland Garros showpiece.
On the men’s side, Carlos Alcaraz is out injured and Jannik Sinner looks unstoppable.
Even Alexander Zverev, who finished runner-up in Madrid, admitted there is “a big gap between Sinner and the rest.”
Sinner has never won the ATP 1000 event at home, but this feels like the moment he could finally lift the trophy in Rome.
A Sinner-Zverev final looks like a strong possibility.
Here is a look at what to expect from the tournament.
Jannik Sinner came very close to lifting his first title in Rome last year, reaching his maiden final here on his sixth attempt.
But he was outclassed by Carlos Alcaraz in the championship match.
Now he arrives in Rome riding a 23-match winning streak.
That run has included consecutive titles at Indian Wells, Miami, Monte-Carlo and Madrid.
He looks well placed to keep that momentum going.
His projected path to the final includes a possible second-round clash against Sebastian Ofner, with Jakub Menšík a likely third-round opponent.
His biggest early challenge could come in the fourth round against Arthur Fils.
Fils has been brilliant this season. He won the title in Barcelona, finished runner-up in Doha and reached the semifinals in both Miami and Madrid.
With that kind of form, you would normally expect Fils to make the last four here as well.
But such is the draw he has been handed that he could run into top seed Sinner as early as the round of 16.
Fifth seed Ben Shelton is expected to bounce back from his early exit in Madrid and could meet Sinner in the quarterfinals.
Beyond that, the Italian could be in for an all-Italian semifinal against 10th seed Flavio Cobolli.
Looks like a surprise pick? More on that later.
We have been bringing you these weekly newsletters since the 2023 tennis season! It would mean a lot to us if you could help us continue in the same vein and grow. Here’s how you can help…
Book an advert that will be featured on TennisWorldLive.substack.com by emailing me at tennisworldlive.com@gmail.com
Consider buying me a coffee here!
Forward this to a tennis fan & invite them to subscribe by clicking on the button below.
In the bottom half, two-time Rome champion Alexander Zverev leads the pack, but he could have a few dangerous young guns to deal with.
Madrid semifinalist Alexander Blockx could set up a rematch with Zverev in the third round.
The German beat Blockx in straight sets in Madrid to reach the final, and the outcome in Italy is likely to remain the same.
Zverev’s projected fourth-round opponent is Tommy Paul, whom we are backing to get past Luciano Darderi in a potential third-round meeting.
In the quarterfinals, Zverev could face 32nd seed Rafael Jódar.
Jódar is only 19, but he is already playing high-level clay-court tennis.
He won in Marrakech, reached the semifinals in Barcelona, and made the quarterfinals in Madrid before losing to Sinner.
He is 12-2 on clay this season, and we are backing him to come through a section featuring Alex de Minaur and Alexander Bublik to make the quarterfinals on his Rome debut.
That journey, however, could end there — most likely against Zverev.
Who could meet Zverev in the semifinals?
Novak Djokovic is back in Rome, and while the third seed has won this tournament six times, it may not be straightforward after a lengthy layoff since mid-March.
His early danger could come from Vít Kopřiva in the third round.
Kopřiva has quietly put together a strong clay-court stretch.
Whether Djokovic or Kopřiva advances, we expect that player to eventually fall to 11th seed Jiří Lehečka in the quarterfinals.
Lehečka, the finalist in Miami, also made the quarterfinals in Madrid.
With that kind of form behind him, a semifinal run here looks very possible.
Thanks for reading TennisWorldLive.com! This post is public so feel free to share it.
We have already backed Jódar to make the quarterfinals by beating higher-ranked players.
We have also picked Lehečka to make the semifinals ahead of Djokovic and Lorenzo Musetti, a possible fourth-round opponent.
But our biggest surprise pick is Cobolli to make the final four in the top half.
Cobolli, who won the title in Acapulco, has made a strong start to the clay season.
He finished runner-up in Munich and reached the quarterfinals in Madrid.
With that sort of form — and home conditions on his side — expect him to take down Daniil Medvedev in a potential fourth-round clash.
Remember, he beat the Russian in Madrid in three sets.
We also expect Cobolli to get past Félix Auger-Aliassime in the quarterfinals, based purely on current form and the fact that Cobolli holds a 2-0 head-to-head edge over the Canadian.
Men’s Quarterfinals:
Jannik Sinner vs Ben Shelton
Félix Auger-Aliassime vs Flavio Cobolli
Jiří Lehečka vs Novak Djokovic / Vít Kopřiva
Alexander Zverev vs Rafael Jódar
Men’s Semifinals:
Sinner vs Cobolli
Zverev vs Lehečka
Men’s Final:
Sinner vs Zverev
*Jannik Sinner is expected to win it all.
Top seed Aryna Sabalenka suffered a stunning collapse at the Madrid Open, failing to convert six match points against Hailey Baptiste in the fourth round.
She will be eager to bounce back quickly and make a statement in Rome.
Sabalenka is still chasing her maiden title at the Italian Open.
In seven previous appearances, she has reached just one final.
Sabalenka’s projected path this year could include a potential second-round meeting with Barbora Krejčíková, followed by a possible third-round clash against Sorana Cîrstea.
Linda Nosková could be waiting in the fourth round.
Amanda Anisimova is seeded to meet Sabalenka in the quarterfinals, but her inconsistent season makes that far from certain.
She is also set to make her first clay-court appearance of the year.
Watch out for unseeded Anna Bondár in that section.
She stunned Elina Svitolina in Madrid before pushing Mirra Andreeva hard in a gripping three-setter.
Bondár is a dangerous clay-court player, and we are backing her to make the quarterfinals against the odds.
Who could meet Sabalenka in the semifinals?
On current form, you have to back Mirra Andreeva.
The eighth seed is 12-2 on clay this season.
She won the title in Linz, reached the semifinals in Stuttgart, and finished runner-up in Madrid.
We are backing her to topple defending champion Jasmine Paolini in a potential fourth-round clash.
Paolini has looked a little off-color this year, although playing at home in Italy could make her a very different proposition.
In the last eight, Andreeva is likely to run into third seed Coco Gauff, last year’s finalist.
The American leads the head-to-head 4-0, which should give her plenty of confidence if they do meet.
But based on recent form, an upset looks very possible.
The bottom half is led by Elena Rybakina.
The second seed has been solid this season but suffered an early exit to Anastasia Potapova in Madrid.
Her Rome draw is not an easy one either.
Madrid champion Marta Kostyuk looms as a potential fourth-round opponent.
Kostyuk has won 11 matches in a row, capturing back-to-back clay titles in Rouen and Madrid.
Rybakina does, however, lead the head-to-head 5-1.
Despite Kostyuk’s form, we are backing Rybakina to respond strongly and reach the quarterfinals.
Rybakina’s projected quarterfinal opponent is Elina Svitolina.
The seventh seed has been excellent overall this year but is still trying to find her best level on clay.
She reached the semifinals in Stuttgart but suffered a second-round exit in Madrid.
Her toughest early test could come in the third round against Madrid semifinalist Hailey Baptiste.
Still, we are backing Svitolina’s experience to carry her into the fourth round.
That run, however, could end in the quarterfinals against Rybakina.
Who could meet Rybakina in the semifinals?
Iga Świątek and Jessica Pegula are expected to clash in the quarterfinals.
We are backing the Pole to edge through despite her indifferent form.
Świątek is a three-time champion in Rome, and this feels like the kind of place where she could begin her turnaround.
One player currently coming through qualifying is Anastasia Potapova.
She is 10-3 on clay this year.
Potapova finished runner-up in Linz and went from lucky loser to semifinalist in Madrid — a run that included a win over Rybakina.
If she makes the main draw, she has the ability to throw this section completely off script.
Quarterfinals:
Aryna Sabalenka vs Anna Bondár
Coco Gauff vs Mirra Andreeva
Jessica Pegula vs Iga Świątek
Elena Rybakina vs Elina Svitolina
Semifinals:
Sabalenka vs Andreeva
Rybakina vs Świątek
Final:
Sabalenka vs Rybakina
*Aryna Sabalenka is backed to return to winning ways by claiming her maiden Rome crown.
We have been bringing you these weekly newsletters since the 2023 tennis season! It would mean a lot to us if you could help us continue in the same vein and grow. Here’s how you can help…
Book an advert that will be featured on TennisWorldLive.substack.com by emailing me at tennisworldlive.com@gmail.com
Consider buying me a coffee here!
Forward this to a tennis fan & invite them to subscribe by clicking on the button below.
Comments
Nothing yet. Say the first thing.
Sign in to join the conversation.