Venezuela

My first reaction to Trump’s special mission to capture Venezuela’s president is the important point that two truths can be possible at the same time. It is true to say that Maduro’s presidency was illegitimate and undoubtedly a source of pain to the Venezuelan people. It is also true to say that Donald Trump’s decision almost certainly contravenes international law and, regardless of legality, further destabilises any remaining shred of consensus around an international rules-based order.

Ed Davey, leader of the British Liberal Democrats, is one of a number of voices suggesting that Trump’s actions will serve to embolden Russia, China and any other country looking to make foreign interventions to suit their agendas. It is already clear that Trump is largely ambivalent to Russia’s invasion of the Ukraine breaking international norms. Given his well-documented fixation with China, which has so-far been mainly a target of economic policies, it would be interesting to know what discussions, if any, Trump and his team had about how the Venezuela mission could help President Xi to form a case for intervention in Taiwan.

At some point, Trump’s disregard for international norms and the rule of law may cost him. There are already some questioning how the Venezuela mission fits into an ‘America First’ approach. Even allowing for Maduro’s connections with the cartels, where should the line be drawn with foreign military intervention? It is also unclear how Venezuela is now being governed. Any attempts for the USA to establish control over a foreign country is fraught with challenges that have surely been learnt from previous engagements such as Iraq and Afghanistan. To so quickly mention a role for the US oil industry is to almost pointedly ask for accusations of cronyism.

All that said, Trump and his advisors have no doubt already made some important calculations. Any criticisms, including those I’ve outlined, were predictable, as would be the identities of the critics. It is unlikely that Trump will lose too many of his supporters, a majority of whom have never seemed troubled by Trump’s attitudes towards foreign policy. There is a gamble that he won’t be haemorrhaging too many of the more ideological MAGA supporters or those Republicans who pinch their noses to support Trump. The president is also banking, probably pretty soundly, on elected Republicans and those in his administration at least keeping their criticisms to themselves. With predictable critics and an untroubled core of support, it is difficult to see how this Venezuela development will lead to anyone landing a decent blow on Trump.

Share

This feels like a major moment in the second Trump presidency. Just like other key events, whether the Zelensky meeting in the Oval Office or the ongoing tariff saga, it is still too early to tell exactly where things are headed. The most significant development will come if Trump sees a setback to his political powers, which he seems to be wielding practically unfettered. This is unlikely to come from the Democrats or foreign leaders. Just as with the Supreme Court ruling on the deployment of the National Guard, this restraining of the president must come from his allies and supporters. While Secretary Rubio is unlikely to rediscover his spine, perhaps this decision crosses the line for a Senator or two. It is unclear what form the restraint or the restraining might take. It is just as likely that Trump carries along unconstrained, transacting his way around the world and around the US constitution.

If presidential second terms are normally driven by the desire to secure a legacy, then Trump can already lay claim to one: an end to norms, both domestic and international. Then again, once the norms are thrown out, there is no longer a normal. Which means that there is no such thing as a normal second term and Trump is certainly delivering on that.