Tea Leaves - Monday 31st March, 2025

Last week, it was interesting to observe and listen to the UK's response to the current economic malaise. From what Teaboy can tell, it has nearly overtaken the national conversation about immigration. With growth potentially maxing out at 1% over the next few years and UK productivity languishing, the UK's position as the 'sick man of Europe' leaves many, including ‘Rachel from accounts’, with few options. The analogy of uphill skiing just about sums it up in this interesting piece in the Independent, as does this cartoon from Matt1.

Not sure if you have noticed it but in seems to be the new out. It might be due to the overall belt tightening or something else.

First degree economics

While we're on a roll, let's add fuel to the fire with some worrying news for recent college graduates: unemployment among them is rising more sharply than overall unemployment. For 15 years, Teaboy has been raising the issue with colleagues (who overwhelmingly disagree) about the value of a college degree, ever since he became aware of the appalling return on investment (ROI) in US education (and likely elsewhere, as global prices have risen). The Earl, who works in education, found an interesting article in the NYT on this issue. These trends don't yet fully factor in the impact of federal government cuts or the significant potential impact of AI.

Taxing times

Before we move onto more genial stuff this coming week, the UK abolishes its "non-dom tax status," a wheeze for the worlds richest who have used London as an effective tax haven, and one with better restaurants, theatre and shopping than the other locales offering tax avoidance. Across the Atlantic, the "Trump Gold Card" was recently announced as a proposed policy to entice the global (tax avoiding) elite to reside in the US, earn overseas, and escape tax on all foreign income. Just as Britain bids farewell to its wealthy 'businessmen' and its once beloved oligarchs and kleptocrats, America extends a gilded invitation.

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Some lighter distractions

Ok enough of the doom and gloom.

This week, the Earl found himself using https://fullfact.org/ and rather enjoying the search for truth. When not on this truth quest, he spent time planning future travel and, instead of battling allergies in a DC spring, ended up thinking about floating in a gondola down a Venetian canal, considering the ingenious engineering that keeps that wonderful city afloat. 🇮🇹.

And finally, a few weeks back the Earl turned Tea Boy onto a new source of delight. Its truly amazing just how much great content there is in the world and much of it resides on: The Marginalian And from this august source we end this weeks review with a few lines from the poem Berryman by W.S. Mermin2.

‘I had hardly begun to read
I asked how can you ever be sure
That what you write is really
Any good at all and he said you can’t

You can’t you can never be sure
You die without knowing
Whether anything you wrote was any good
If you have to be sure don’t write’