Summer McIntosh 🐐 TALK

Summer McIntosh broke three world records in three different individual events at the Canadian Swim Trials, becoming the first swimmer to accomplish this feat since Michael Phelps set four world records en route to winning eight gold medals at the 2008 Beijing Olympics.

When you become the first to do something in swimming since the 🐐 Michael Phelps, headlines around the world are going to lead with the comparison.

McIntosh came within a second of breaking the world record in two other events (the 200m butterfly and the 800m freestyle), which could, in three years, make McIntosh a favorite to win five individual gold medals at the 2028 Los Angeles Olympics, a feat only been done once by the aforementioned Michael Phelps at the 2008 Beijing Games.

The women’s 800m freestyle is shaping up as a must-see event, where Katie Ledecky is looking to become the first swimmer to win the same event at five consecutive Olympics. However, she will face stiff competition from McIntosh, who handed Ledecky her first loss in the event since 2010 last February.

Summer McIntosh’s main rival in swimming history may be Michael Phelps, not Katie Ledecky, as her Olympic career has strangely paralleled Phelps’ career, albeit 20 years later.

They both made an event final in their Olympic debut when they were under the age of 16 (Phelps was 15 at the 2000 Sydney Olympics, McIntosh was 14 at the 2020 Tokyo Olympics).

They both broke their first world record in the quad following their first Olympics, and both swept the 200m IM and 400m IM in their second Olympics, after not competing in the medley events in their Olympic debut. They both lost their attempts to win a freestyle gold medal in their second Olympics (Phelps in the 200m freestyle, McIntosh in the 400m freestyle) to an Australian swimmer who was a defending Olympic gold medalist and one of the biggest names in the sport at the time (Ian Thorpe, Ariarne Titmus).

Additionally, they will now share the same coach as McIntosh will head to the University of Texas to train under Phelps’ coach, Bob Bowman, after the 2025 World Championships, with the goal of replicating his success at his third Olympics (2008 Beijing Games) at her third Olympics (2028 LA Games) (see full chart below).

If McIntosh can match Phelps's five individual gold medals at one Olympics, which Phelps set at the Beijing Games, she could well on her way to matching his thirteen overall individual gold medals at the Olympics.

Currently (see chart below), McIntosh is dominating in four strokes for which she is expected to win a gold medal at the 2025 World Championships. It would not be surprising if McIntosh wins those races by two seconds or more, given the competition in the field.1 Her closest race on paper appears to be Katie Ledecky in the 800m freestyle, where Ledecky is a six-time world champion, having won the event at the last six World Championships she has competed in.2 Ledecky lowered her world record earlier this year in the 800m freestyle in May, and Ledecky and McIntosh might need a world record swim for gold in Singapore.

Michael Phelps’ record of 23 Olympic gold medals is likely untouchable, because of the U.S. relay excellence with Phelps (10 Olympic gold relay medals). The U.S. never lost an Olympic race in the 4x200m freestyle relay or men’s 4x100m medley relay with Phelps on the team.

On the other hand, Canada has never won a relay gold medal in swimming at the Olympics or World Championships —a piece of history that McIntosh might be able to change by the time she finishes her swimming career. To win their first gold, the Canadians would likely require a Herculean effort from McIntosh (possibly a lead-off leg world record in the 4x200m freestyle) to upset swimming nations like Australia and the United States, which usually dominate relays due to their depth.

The 🐐 talk for McIntosh is based on age and the amount of competitive swimming she might have left. McIntosh could compete in three more Olympics (2028 LA, 2032 Brisbane, 2036 TBD) and six more World Championships before turning thirty on August 18, 2036. Just by projecting McIntosh to win four individual gold medals at each of the next two World Championships and the 2028 Olympic Games, McIntosh would be more than halfway to becoming the leader in individual gold medals at the Olympics behind Phelps (13) and World Championships behind Ledecky (16 to 203) and just turning twenty-two with likely a decade or more left in the pool.