All Eyes on Budapest

Today is Orthodox Easter (my social media feed is flooded with beautiful pastel cakes and dyed eggs, each country having a different word for the same sweet bread or sweet cheese tower), but today much of the world is watching tiny Hungary as Hungarians head to the polls in record numbers, and from the looks of it (too early for any final results to be in other than exit polls), Mr. Orban’s time appears to be up. Which is fascinating in and of itself, and also that democracy, it would appear, is actually still working within the EU. I don’t know why I find this fascinating, perhaps I have grown far too cynical, and yet any time of friend of Putin’s doesn’t actively steal an election, I think it is cause for celebration. I did see a tweet earlier today by one of Orban’s political advisors (who interestingly shares the same last name but is no relation) accusing the opposition party which is expected to win today of rigging the vote, etc. It was exactly the kind of message one puts out when your only form of defense is to accuse your opponent of something you would do.

Perhaps we should just take a second to appreciate this tidbit, for those of you who didn’t know the name of who is expected to be the future leader of Hungary:

Turnout was apparently massive, at nearly 75%. As I write, the polls have only just closed a few mintues ago (7pm Budapest time). CNN, in what may be a sign of what is to come, is leading with the headline that the race is close. Politico expects court challenges either way. So as much as everyone would like to see a “win” in Hungary (which is really nothing about Hungary but more about seeing a Trump and Putin buddy be elected out of office by those in the west tired of the alliance of conservative old white men, to put it nicely), it seems we may not get an answer tomorrow or even this week. Furthermore, from Hungarians perspective (and I cannot speak for them), I think this was less about foreign policy and more about the future of their country which they think has been held back by years of crony deals and corruption with EU money. I was last in Budapest a year ago, and I noted then that the city looked less well off than other central European capitals (just realized I used this photo back then too, oh well).

Regime change in Hungary would certainly feel like a win for many Europeans and EU politicians tired of official Hungary’s antics. It is also important to note that Orban has a personal axe to grind with Ukraine and is permanently railing against Zelensky to the point that the whole thing looks ridiculous and dare I say, anti-semitic. It would appear the last minute campaign appearance by US Vice President Vance didn’t do much of anything, no surprise there either.

We also learned today that talks with Iran in Pakistan appear to have gone nowhere. Now Trump is threatening to close the Strait of Hormuz to all traffic. This would of course be an escalation, cutting Iran off of revenue, as until now Iranian ships and those ships which paid Iran were getting through. I have no insight into this other than to say that in the short term, I suppose, we may face even greater supply issues, and that will keep commodity prices artificially high. So the sigh of relief the markets breathed may indeed have been very short-lived. Obviously, this whole thing is a mess which cannot now be undone and the White House must be scrambling behind the scenes to try and come up with a least bad solution, if there is one to be found. I cannot imagine the anger within the Gulf states, and as some experts rightly point out, all of this is going to lead to pipeline buildling on their part, as long-term no one is going to want to be vulnerable to having their exports held hostage by Iran on a whim. Frankly, I suppose, it is surprising this all never happened sooner when you look at the geography of the map. A testament, I suppose, to cooler-headed governments.

A few interesting long-reads for you this week:

A very insightful discussion with economist Brank Milanovic about his new book. He describes this new economic situation we are living in, and I found it particularly insightful in the context of trying to get my layman’s head around what I saw in China on our recent visit. I have not yet read his book, but I am now thinking I should order it.

Another long read, totally unrelated, but on the concept of the “Disneyland”-ing of Europe by certain, generally anglo-saxons, in search of a fantasy version of a slow, idyllic life. The writing is sharp and astute, and worth your time.

I listened to two very different but both intriguing podcasts this week. The first, an interview with Lena Dunham about her new book (I am a huge fan of her TV shows and although I understand why she is controversial I find her voice so unique and at times so damn smart I am willing to look past everything else). The second, an interview with a veteran New York Times journalist who flew to Mexico to take a drug which is illegal in the U.S. but used experimentally, primarily by military veterans, to get over PTSD.

While scrolling today I also came across this interesting piece by historian Sergey Radchenko about giving up his Russian citizenship. I was surprised by two moments. First, that he didn’t expect Russia to actually invade Ukraine in 2022. Second, that he thought one could make a joke while inside the Russian embassy (read to the end, I don’t want to spoil the outcome).

I Had Poked the Bear Right In the Eye

Perhaps there are situations in which ordinary person common sense overpowers academic prowise. As someone who experienced moving to a new country as a child, and all those immigration processes through a child’s eyes, I feel to my bones the need to shut the hell up when inside a government office, not say anything that could potentially offend anyone, and tow the party line. I am also truly surprised how a historian could miss Putin’s obsession with maps and history because it seems so fundamental to understanding his motivations as a leader…perhaps because it is so ridiculous it was difficult to believe or take seriously. In any case, the article is interesting and giving up one’s citizenship is something you actually have to do when you take on a new one in many countries and is not nearly as straightforward as it might sound. As the author jokes, you could not simply set your Russian passport on fire and toss it over the gates of the embassy.

In a sign of the (grim) times we are living through, the New York Times did a long interview with Lauren Sanchez, which I was inclined to read after a veteran journalist retweeted it. Reader, let me spare you. You will not find her nor Bezos any more interesting if you make it to the end. It is actually remarkable how people can amass such staggering wealth and still not come across as anyone you would actually like to have dinner with, or even a cup of coffee frankly. And then you think about all the possibilities of what could be done with that wealth if the in the “right” hands, and it is just depressing. The whole thing reads just…empty. And the fact that they live on some billionaire island in Miami, well Florida is just a metaphor for everything preverse these days. Imagine having all that money and still choosing to live in Florida. Anyway, I warned you. The only interesting tidbit is she is actually a helicopter pilot. Which is kind of cool, I suppose.

This week I saw an art house film in the cinema in Vienna which caught my attention with its name — Yugo Florida (the car, not the state). It is a classic story in many ways about father and son, and life and death, and the lead actor is very talented, as I knew him from other Serbian-made shows. More than the father-son relationship, I was fascinated by the portrayal of women in the film, which the main character interacted with using about as much thought and consideration as one uses to decide what to eat for lunch. It was fascinating in that sense alone.

I must apologize that my recent writing here has been short on substance. I can feel it too and I don’t have any easy answers. I have reached a point where I feel like I don’t have anything really valuable to add to the discussion of what is happening all around us in an era where it feels like much of what we knew and took as god-given has come off the rails. Most days I feel like writing about totally different topics, frankly, but I haven’t figured out the right way yet to package and share those thoughts. In the meantime, thank you for continuing to stick with me. I hope that at least by sharing interesting work by others this provides some value-added.

Before I hit publish, I just checked for the latest from Hungary, and it looks as if the opposition leader is “optimistic but cautious” as the votes are now being counted.