Short "Stops" Why Did The Mets Dive?

WHY DID THE RED SOX THRIVE & THE METS TAKE A DIVE?

On or about June 25, the Mets and Red Sox were mired in last place in their respective divisions with a nearly identical losing record. On April 26, the BoSox fired their manager, Alex Cora, and most of their coaches, except for the pitching gurus. Two months later, on June 26, the Mets fired Carlos Mendoza, but retained the coaches hired before the season after terminating last year’s staff at the end of the 2025 campaign. On July 18, we looked at some simple metrics to that point to come up with an answer:

RED SOX RANKS vs. METS RANKS

Defense: 3rd Defense: 21st

SP (xFIP as metric): 7th SP: 13th

RP (xFIP as metric): 3rd RP: 5th

Offense (wRC+): 22nd Offense: 24th

Baserunning: 9th Baserunning: 20th

Both clubs had similar poor offensive numbers in the bottom 3^rd of MLB. Both teams enjoyed good starting pitching (edge to the Red Sox) and high-quality top-5 bullpens. The differentiator to that point was defense and baserunning. Great defense doesn’t simply prevent runs—it also makes an already good pitching staff even more effective. Great baserunning creates offense that doesn’t require another hit. Perhaps the Mets should have hired Ron Washington and re-signed Anton Richardson to the coaching staff?

WHAT WOULD I DO AS GM OF THE METS

On a recent Sunday Talkin’ Mets Podcast, Mike asked me what I would do if I were Mets GM. So, I dove into my long-standing belief that an MLB roster should be swimming in left-handed and switch-hitting position players along with a plethora of southpaw arms.

A couple of days prior, I compiled some simple analytics to back up my thought process. Using Batting Average, OPS, wOBA, and wRC+ from the entire MLB 2025 season and 2026 through July 17, we can see that, indeed, the most effective bats are swung from the left side, and the most effective pitches are also delivered from the port side. Approximately three-quarters of plate appearances in today’s game come against right-handed pitching. Here’s a look at what we found:

RHH vs LHP: LHH vs LHP:

BA: .249 BA: .235

OPS: .740 OPS: .679

wOBA: .324 wOBA: .302

wRC+: 105 wRC+: 90

RHH vs RHP: LHH vs RHP:

BA: .238 BA: .252

OPS: .694 OPS: .763

wOBA: .306 wOBA: .333

wRC+: 92 wRC+: 111

Or, presented another way…

• Versus LHP, RHH posted a .249 BA, while lefthanded bats hit .252 against RHP.

• Versus LHP, RHH posted a .740 OPS, while lefthanded bats hit .763 against RHP.

• Versus LHP, RHH posted a .324 wOBA, while lefthanded bats achieved .333 against RHP.

• Versus LHP, RHH posted a 105 wRC+, while lefthanded bats achieved 111 against RHP.

• Versus RHP, RHH posted a .238 BA, while lefthanded bats hit .235 against LHP.

• Versus RHP, RHH posted a .694 OPS, while lefthanded bats hit .679 against LHP.

• Versus RHP, RHH posted a .306 wOBA, while lefthanded bats achieved .302 against LHP.

• Versus RHP, RHH posted a 92 wRC+, while lefthanded bats achieved 90 against LHP.

The numbers tell a remarkably consistent story. Left-handed hitters facing right-handed pitching outperform right-handed hitters facing lefties in every major offensive category. Since approximately 70 percent of MLB innings are thrown by right-handed pitchers, constructing a lineup loaded with quality left-handed and switch hitters creates an inherent offensive advantage over the course of a season.

Since right-handed pitchers throw most innings, I would build an offense around left-handed and switch hitters while simultaneously stockpiling left-handed pitching to neutralize opposing left-handed bats. Roster construction should primarily be optimized for facing right-handers rather than striving for perfect balance. That has been my mantra for decades.

PLAYER GRADES THRU JULY 31

A+ Holmes, Weaver, Raley, Brazoban

A Soto, Benge, Ewing, McLean, Scott

A- Minter, Torrens

B+ Lindor, Taylor

B Alvarez, Young

B- Perez

C+ Bichette, Manaea

C Baty, Semien, Peterson

C- Melendez, Myers

D Peralta, Senga, Vientos, Robert Jr.

F Polanco

N/A Mauricio, Wagaman, Senger (all less than 60 ABs)

OUR LATEST PROSPECT RANKINGS

Ten of the deadline acquisitions made our updated top-30 split into position players and pitchers, which is actually quite astounding. The Mets minor league affiliates are now loaded with infield prospects and pitchers to replace the many dealt away for nothing one year ago. Placing Rojas, Pitre, and Stafura in the top-3 hitting spots is rather remarkable, but we feel strongly about these infielders from both an offensive and defensive standpoint. The pitching grab was not as appealing. We do not include players 27 and over, recent draft picks, or any players without at least about half a season of pro ball. Rankings reflect ceiling, defensive value, probability of reaching the majors, age relative to level, and long-term organizational fit. It is also a gauge of who will have a successful MLB run anywhere in the future.

Position Players:

1. Jefferson Rojas, INF

2. Emilien Pitre, 2B

3. Sammy Stafura, INF

4. Jacob Reimer, 3B/1B

5. Elian Pena, INF

6. Nick Morabito, OF

7. Mitch Voit, INF

8. John Bay, OF

9. Chris Suero, C/UTIL

10. Ryan Clifford, 1B/OF

11. Randy Guzman, 1B/DH

12. Aiden Smith, OF

13. Cole Mathis, 1B/DH

14. Bruin Agbayani, INF

15. Billy Amick, 1B/3B

16. Honorable Mentions: Wandy Asigen, INF • Yovanny Rodriguez, C • Eli Serrano III, OF

Pitchers:

1. Jonah Tong (R)

2. Zac Thornton (L)

3. Jonathan Santucci (L)

4. Gary Gill Hill (R)

5. Ben Simon (R)

6. Jack Wenninger (R)

7. Will Watson (R)

8. Daviel Hurtado (L)

9. Cam Tilly (R)

10. Gabe Davis (R)

Honorable Mentions: Jose Chirinos (R) • Nicholas Carreno (L) • Zach Franklin (R)

Can anyone make the 2027 roster? Not out of the gate, but Pitre and Hill could make an appearance at Citi Field in mid-season.

BRINGING IN TALENT MEANS SAYING GOODBYE

Every influx of talent creates difficult roster decisions. These players were released on August 4 as the organization made room for new acquisitions. None of the following prospects were ever on the Talkin’ Mets Prospect Rankings.

Syracuse Mets released LHP Brandon Waddell.

Syracuse Mets released 3B Jose Rojas.

Brooklyn Cyclones released 3B AJ Salgado.

Brooklyn Cyclones released RHP Tanner Witt.

Binghamton Rumble Ponies released OF Matt Rudick.

Binghamton Rumble Ponies released RHP Jordan Geber.

Binghamton Rumble Ponies released 1B JT Schwartz.

St. Lucie Mets released RHP Omar Victorino.

St. Lucie Mets released RHP Luis Alvarez.

New York Mets released RHP Joey Gerber.

New York Mets recalled RHP Xzavion Curry from Syracuse Mets.

THE BIG PICTURE

At the trade deadline, David Stearns appeared to prioritize defense, athleticism, infield depth and long-term organizational talent over immediate offensive production. Pitching depth seemed to be either a lower priority or simply more difficult to acquire in the current market.

Whether that strategy succeeds won’t be determined this season. It will be judged over the next two to three years as this new wave of prospects begins arriving in Queens.

The bigger question is: How long does Stearns have to get it right? This represents his second or third opportunity to reshape the organization after the disappointing results of his other roster overhauls. In today’s win-now environment, even two more seasons may prove to be a luxury.