Late Career Lindor

One of the Mets offseason questions was potentially answered earlier this week, as Francisco Lindor told Mike Puma of the NY Post that he intends to honor the remaining five years of his current contract. There was some smoke around the team shopping Lindor at the trade deadline, and speculation was rampant that both sides would reengage this offseason about whether a partnership going forward was in everyone’s best interest.

A great deal can happen over half a decade, but with the 10- and 5-year rights and $170 million guaranteed, it’s hard to believe the Mets can unwind from this contract without taking a hit financially and/or in prospect capital. Remember, it was your humble Talkin’ Mets radio host who said in the spring of 2021 the Mets were getting married to Lindor, for better or worse, when they bestowed the largest contract in team history before he took a regular-season at-bat.

It hasn’t been a banner year for Lindor, but since his return from the calf strain on June 24th, he’s produced a slash line of .247/.331/.475 with nine homers and 25 RBI. Extrapolating that over a full season, you have a very solid offensive player. It’s also one that isn’t far off from what we saw last year. The important number is the .475 SLG. That's essentially right on Lindor's career average. Yes, his defense has fallen off - the eye test already confirmed it - but he is just minus 1 in Statcast Runs Above Average. Not good, but not a current place where he is hurting the team at a premium position. It’s also not all that clear that his defensive decline is at a point where he couldn’t rebound if healthy next year.