Is The Bear Market Over?

Gm friends, and welcome back to another edition of Syko Therapy.

The last week within the Crypto markets has been a very welcome sight. After months and months of crushing price action, ultimately crushing the collective spirits, we had the largest weekly green candle ever on record. I can’t help but let out a chuckle when I think about how brutal these markets are. They will punish any level of complacency to the highest degree, and just when everything seems like its never coming back, it does. And in mighty fashion!

Only in Crypto does the market go from being the most boring ever, to the largest weekly green candle ever, in the space of 7 days. If that completely caught you off guard, let that serve as a reminder for you, throughout the rest of your investing days, that you can never get complacent here. The rally we’ve just had is what’s known as a “lockout” rally. A rally that is so fast and explosive, it doesn’t give anyone a chance to enter. Crypto has a poetically destructive way of misleading the masses at every single major pivot point.

This is because humans are herd animals that seek safety. The vast majority of us will always side with what the vast majority think, as well as giving the most mind to the idea that can be understood the easiest. The 4 year cycle is the perfect case study of this - enabling you to see it play out in real time. It was what the majority believed would happen, and it was super easy to understand, therefore, it became gospel. However, in the markets, and in life, you must think beyond what seems obvious. This is true most especially in Crypto because the market makers are real, and they are absolutely trying to make you part with all your money. They will emotionally manipulate you and force you make wrong decisions at the worst times, siphoning your hard earned dollars straight into their own pockets. They will do whatever they can to mislead you, and narratives like the 4 year cycle are absolutely prime candidates to ensure this happens.

But now that we’ve had this aggressive market shift, where does it leave us? Do we have enough to be 100% confident the bottom is secured? Since the previous edition, we have a lot more data to work with. Therefore, today, I’m going to provide you with the most up to date data about where we are, go over all of the important metrics, and evaluate to what degree we can be confident that the bear market is over, and what potential things we need to look out for as we move forward. In addition, I’ll update my mid cycle thesis now that Bitcoin has begun to move.

Before we jump in, this weeks free indicator is my “Bull/Bear Momentum” graph. This very accurately shows us the meaning behind moves, and allows you to get ahead of the curve at very key market inflection points, adding major confluence to other buy and sell indicators.

This indicator will be availble for download at the end of the edition for paid subscribers.

Let’s get into it!

It is my view that we now have sufficient evidence to show that the macro bottom for this bear cycle is pretty robust. However, the next phase of this process is getting the full confirmation.

Let us break it down.