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The Swan Dive with Meg Swanick · Jul 6, 2026

The make or break moment for the USMNT's 2026 World Cup is at hand

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Megan Swanick · The Swan Dive with Meg Swanick

After beating Australia in Seattle, Folarin Balogun had sober thoughts on winning and memory: “History is always, the winners are remembered, you know?” He was standing in the underbelly of an elated stadium that had just erupted in the first, now-viral rendition of “Country Roads”, swatting away the idea that they’d made their moment just yet.

With back-to-back wins to top Group D, Balogun stood before us with his second-straight Man of the Match trophy (officially the Michelob Ultra Superior Player of the Match trophy). His demeanor was as calm and focused as when he was sent off the pitch in Santa Clara. He continued: “I’m aware, you know, the country’s supporting us and the country’s proud of us in each game. You know, we are, we are doing things. But for me, I’m just focused on the prize.”

Whether scoring goals himself (the 25-year-old Monaco striker has three of the team’s total), forcing own goals from a flummoxed defensive line or making space for others to score, Balogun has been central to the USMNT’s success in four games. Though as the final 36 minutes against Bosnia & Herzegovina showed, they can win without him, too.

While limiting their opposition to just nine shots on frame, the fifth-fewest of all 48 teams in the tournament, a free-flowing and audacious team has found goals from across the squad (plus two from “own goal”), with contributions from Gio Reyna, Alex Freeman, Auston Trusty, Sebastian Berhalter, and Malik Tillman. That’s a diverse cast of players beyond the team’s go-to goal scorers, a great sign for tonight’s mandate: score more against Belgium than they manage against us.

As a collective, they’ve impressed with their performances. And they’ve stitched together far-flung pockets of the country now riding a wave of inspiration and belief. They beat Paraguay 4-1 and Australia 2-0 on their way to topping Group D with a game in hand, then beat Bosnia and Herzegovina in the Round of 32 to snap a 12-game winless run (let the caveats rain down upon us) against UEFA teams, and mark their first World Cup knockout win since 2002.

But the dividing line between an admirable achievement and indisputable success for this program on this stage is now truly at hand, as an older version of the team—plus a few scary additions—that stymied their strong showing in 2014 (highlighted by Tim Howard’s 14 saves) stands between them and a quarter-final. And a polarizing plot twist with Balogun at the center of it may have just handed a doddering version of Belgium’s golden generation a new life.

Following a White House intervention beseeching FIFA regarding a widely lambasted, slowed-down VAR decision that forced the USMNT to play with 10 players in the Round of 32, Balogun will now be on available to play against the Red Devils.

The optics may inspire backlash (including but not limited to the on-field response from the Belgians tonight) or the proverbial opening of pandora’s box (the French are at work appealing Michael Olise’s yellow card from Sunday, though so far as I know Macron didn’t put in a call). But Balogun deserves to be on the field. Still, the floodgates of appeals are feared, I suppose, alongside merited requests for clarity on the process. England coach Thomas Tuchel commented:

“To be clear it was not a red card. VAR got involved. The decision is made. Who overturns this decision and when and on what grounds? It’s strange for me. We want consistency. I think it is not a yellow card, Declan Rice. Does France get the yellow card back for (Michael) Olise which was not a yellow card. Where does this start and where does this end? Do we appeal (Jarell Quansah red)?” Should Harry Kane ask President Trump? “Maybe!”

Under Pochettino, the USMNT has shown they can find ways to win in a variety of circumstances, including while competing with 10 players in a World Cup knockout match. Tonight against Belgium, they’ll play for the “prize” — a deeper run, more memories, escalating this wave of inspiration— with Balogun available alongside the potentially double-edged sword of a corresponding, oppositional momentum enlivened on the other side.

No matter the conditions, the implications of this game are the same—- while facing their toughest opponent yet, the opportunity to take this tournament toward the myth-making realm of the unprecedented is at hand.

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