The home of the SEEDS economic model - Tim Morgan
PARKING THE THESIS Foreword It’s been said that travelling hopefully is better than arriving, but there comes a point at which even the most sluggish and reluctant train pulls into the station. When that happens, the locomotive and the rolling … Continue reading →
A CRISIS IN CONTEXT Foreword By definition, news has to be new, and there’s nothing novel now about salvoes being traded across the Persian Gulf, or parties to the conflict alternately blowing hot and cold about negotiations. With each day … Continue reading →
ADVENTURES IN THERMO-ECONOMICS Foreword According to official data, British real GDP grew by about 250% between 1965 and 2025. Despite a 28% rise in population numbers, the average person was vastly (about 175%) better off last year than his or … Continue reading →
HOW THE PHYSICAL DERAILS THE FINANCIAL Foreword Even if the flow of shipping through the Straits of Hormuz were to resume immediately – and there’s very little likelihood of that – more than enough damage has already been done to … Continue reading →
STRESS & GRIEF AT THE END OF GROWTH Foreword Economic growth is generally understood as a process that delivers a material betterment of living standards over time. But growth has two other virtues, neither of which has hitherto attracted as … Continue reading →
REFLECTIONS ON CRISIS & THE RISE OF AMATEURISM Foreword One of the first things that an investment analyst learns is that professional clients need more than simply your opinions or hunches. Presentations need to be based on data, and the … Continue reading →
TRYING TO DODGE AN ENERGY BULLET Foreword For perfectly understandable reasons, many comparisons have been drawn between contemporary events in the Persian Gulf and the oil crises of the 1970s. This can only be useful, though, if we have an … Continue reading →
SOME REALITIES BEHIND THE ONGOING CONFLICT Foreword We may not yet know how and when the war in Iran will end, but we can already perceive how it will be spun in retrospect. Following the pandemic lockdowns of 2020 and … Continue reading →
A SYNOPSIS Foreword For some time now I’ve been minded to post something about “the end of growth” at LinkedIn. Obviously this had to state the issues in ways that make sense to anyone not hitherto familiar with the Surplus … Continue reading →
LIFE AFTER TRUTH Foreword It might be fair to say that visitors to this site divide into two broad categories – those who are interested in economic and financial theory itself, and those more concerned with the explanation of current … Continue reading →