Macau Vital Statistics to June 2026 Released 7 August 2026: births fall sharply while deaths are slowly rising. 2025 TFR is only 0.47 and Aging Population Contributes to Rapid Demographic Change.

Macau Marriage, birth and death data to June 2026 was released today 7 August 2026.

Deaths are generally stable, though running higher than pre-pandemic levels.

Births in 5/6 months of available data for 2026 are lowest on record.

Putting births and deaths since 2018 into contrast clearly shows the plummeting births and rising deaths.

Natural population increase has fallen by more than 99% since 2019; population growth of 3,697 in 2019 will fall to only 30 in full 2026 if initial half year trending continues. Using 2026 1/2 year data to project estimated final 2026 data, annual births 2019 to 2026 will fall from 5,979 to around 2,680 (-55.2%), and annual deaths will rise from 2,282 to around 2,650 (+16.1%). However, final % will be worse if deaths continue to rise and births to fall with negative natural population growth immnent.

Trending is contributed by rapidly rising elderly population, particularly since 2021. The pandemic and its imposed measures might well have been the final straw on top of already contracting population growth.

Macau’s total fertility rate (TFR) in 2025 was 0.47 births per woman (aged 15–49), according to official data from the Statistics and Census Service (DSEC). Annual live births / 1000 women fell from a peak of 1,357 in 2019 to only 467 in 2025. Births will fall even further in 2026. From these figures, it is clear than Macau has already fallen off the edge of the population cliff, and natural population growth may not be recoverable!

Deaths across age categories 2019 to 2025 show:

• large end of 2022 early 2023 death spikes in those aged 40 and older,

• a trend of rising deaths among younger folk aged <40 and those aged 65-79,

• falling death trending among those aged 40 - 64, and

• apparently stable deaths among elderly persons aged 80 and older.

Causes of death show peaks from all causes in late 2022 and early 2023 followed by trending of rising circulatory, cancers, and other COD. Respiratory COD are trending slightly down. There is a curious unexplained spike in external causes in early 2025.

COVID-19 vaccines are still on offer in Macau and are recommended for high-risk groups (elderly, people with chronic illnesses, or immunocompromised persons). They are available for persons aged 6 months and older. COVID-19 infections continue to actively circulate in Macau.