Ben Studebaker: Does Iran Still Have an Islamic Republic?

Let me give you a hypothetical scenario.

Suppose it’s the summer of 2020, a week before the Republican National Convention. The Republicans are set to nominate Donald Trump to run against Joe Biden. But then, the unthinkable happens—a foreign state attacks the United States, killing Donald Trump in a drone strike. What would happen?

Mike Pence would become president, because the US constitution specifies that when the president is assassinated, he is succeeded by the vice president. But then, the Republican Party would have to nominate Pence at its convention. None of the delegates would be committed to that course of action. Suppose some of them want to nominate someone else. Perhaps a chunk of them want to go with Ron DeSantis, Marco Rubio, Nikki Haley, or whoever.[1]

Donald Trump’s children survive the attack, but they are wounded, and they are rumored to be really angry. They want revenge against the country that killed their father.

Because the United States is under attack from an adversary that is able to successfully target the president, it’s decided that it’s not safe to hold the convention in-person. So, the RNC is held in a big zoom meeting. During this zoom meeting, the Republican Party’s rules aren’t followed. A bunch of generals are present at the meeting, and they tell the delegates that they have to support Ivanka Trump, to send a message to the enemy that the United States cannot be intimidated.

The delegates resent this pressure. They leak to the media that they are unhappy with the behavior of the military. In a bid to reassert its autonomy, the Republican Party holds a secret convention in-person at an undisclosed location. After a few votes, they have reduced the field to a couple candidates—Marco Rubio and Ted Cruz. But Marco Rubio and Ted Cruz both refuse the nomination, because they believe that if they accept it, they will be targeted by the foreign state, which has already proven it can kill the president at will.

So, the RNC is at an impasse. Some Republican delegates suggest that the convention could be delayed to give the party more time to deliberate about how to move forward. In the meantime, Mike Pence could continue to serve as president.

The next morning, Mike Pence publicly apologizes to the allies of the state that attacked America, promising not to retaliate against them. Many people in the Republican Party are appalled that Pence would apologize to the enemy’s friends, and they think Pence is a fool for giving up negotiating leverage. The military is apoplectic.

In response, the Republicans agree to nominate Ivanka Trump. But once Ivanka Trump is nominated, no one sees her or hears from her. Her campaign is not staffed by ordinary political appointees. Instead, the military openly campaigns for her. Feeling intimidated, the Democrats decide not to run Joe Biden against Ivanka. The general election proves to be a mere formality—Ivanka Trump is elected with 90% of the vote.

Even after Ivanka Trump becomes president, nobody sees her or hears from her. The military fights a war against the state that assassinated Donald Trump, but there’s no evidence that Ivanka Trump is giving any of the orders. When officers try to meet with Ivanka Trump, they are not permitted to see her.

Some time later, the foreign state that killed Donald Trump claims that it is in talks with the Speaker of the House, Nancy Pelosi, about a peace deal. The military denies that this is the case.

Has the regime changed?

[1] Since it’s 2020, nobody is thinking about JD Vance.