My wife and I see a lot of movies, and one of the things we like to do is see all the Oscar nominees and potential nominees. I do this because I like to see good movies, and the movies I think are good often tend to be highbrow and middlebrow movies that get nominated for the Oscars. My wife does this because of that plus she loves the Oscar races and how it plays out between all the various awards shows, culminating in one awards shows that a mix of politicking, vibes, nostalgia, and actual artistic merit.
So I’m relatively well-educated on the Oscars for this year. With that said, I got no idea how the Oscars are going to go this year, because it was a genuinely great year for middlebrow and highbrow movies, with great performances, great movies, all for movies that are deeply engaging with the culture right now. This is most encapsulated by the two front-runners, One Battle After Another and Sinners, which I think are two of the most timely movies of the last decade and I would be happy if either won in almost every catagory they’re nominated in.
I’ll get granular in just a moment, but that’s the takeaway. There are very few awards here with clear winners this year, and almost all of the nominees absolutely deserve it, but for me Sinners or One Battle After Another could sweep and I’d be happy.
Best Picture.
Want to Win: Sinners or One Battle After Another
Will Win: Sinners or One Battle After Another. I honestly have no idea which one will do so, and that’s really exciting. I think ultimately One Battle After Another is more likely to win, because Oscars So White, but it’s genuinely great. But so is Sinners.
Fine If It Wins: Train Dreams, Hamnet, Sentimental Value, The Secret Agent,
Will Be Disappointed If Wins: Marty Supreme
Will Be Angry If Wins: Bugonia, Frankenstein
Actress in a Leading Role
Want to Win: Jessie Buckley, Renate Reinsve
Will Win: Jessie Buckley
Fine If It Wins: Rose Byrne
Will Be Disappointed If Wins: Emma Stone
Will Be Angry If Wins: Kate Hudson
Actor in a Leading Role
Want to Win: Michael B. Jordan
Will Win: Timothée Chalamet
Fine If It Wins: Timothée Chalamet, Ethan Hawke, Wagner Moura
Will Be Disappointed If Wins: No one. This is one of the strongest categories of the night. Everyone gave a career best performance.
Actress in a Supporting Role
Want to Win: Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas
Will Win: Absolutely no idea. I’d guess everyone but Elle Fanning (who was great, but not as great) has a shot at it. As I write this, Amy Madigan is my guess but honestly that guess has changed regularly.
Fine If It Wins: EVERYONE.
Actor in a Supporting Role
Want to Win: Benicio del Toro
Will Win: This is another super competitive slot. I think everyone but Jacob Elordi has a shot. Depending on how the night goes, it’s either Delroy Lindo or Benicio’s to win, I think, but Sean Penn is a dark horse.
Fine If It Wins: The aforementioned, plus Stellan.
Will Be Disappointed If Wins: F—-ing Jacob Elordi.
Directing
Want to Win: Paul Thomas Anderson
Will Win: It’s either PTA or Ryan Coogler. They both deserve it. I guess PTA.
Fine If It Wins: All are great, but there are no other contenders.
Adapted Screenplay
Want to Win: One Battle After Another
Will Win: One Battle After Another
Fine If It Wins: Hamnet and Train Dreams are great movies that are perfect Oscar bait.
Will Be Disappointed If Wins: Frankenstein, Bugonia
Original Screenplay
Want to Win: Sinners
Will Win: Sinners. Maybe the only category where it’s not competing with OBAA
Fine If It Wins: Sentimental Value, Blue Moon
Cinematography
Want to Win: One Battle after Another
Will Win: One Battle After Another, or Sinners
Fine If It Wins: Train Dreams
Will Be Angry If Wins: Frankenstein, the quintessential Netflix cinematography.
Film Editing
Want to Win: One Battle after Another
Will Win: One Battle after Another
International Feature
Want to Win: Sentimental Value
Will Win: Sentimental Value
Fine If It Wins: The Secret Agent
As a note, this is the category that has absolutely the most chance of being fascinating politically, as every movie other than Sentimental Value is so weighted down with the politics of the world, between the film about a Democracy taken over by violent corporate interests crushing its citizens, the Iranian movie, the movie about Gaza, or the movie about innocent people crushed by sudden war in their countries.
Score
Want to Win: One Battle After Another
Will Win: One Battle After Another
Fine If It Wins: ∫Sinners, Bugonia (the only Bugonia nomination I’m happy about), Hamnet
Song
Want to Win: “I Lied To You” from Sinners
Will Win: “I Lied To You” from Sinners. Come on, it was my top moment of the year.
Fine If It Wins: “Golden” from KPop Demon Hunters, “Train Dreams” from Train Dreams
Visual Effects
Want to Win: Sinners
Will Win: Avatar: Fire and Ash. Nothing is beating this movie.
Fine If It Wins: F1
Casting
Want to Win: Sinners
Will Win: Sinners
Fine If It Wins: One Battle After Another, Marty Supreme. Marty Supreme has the best “that guy?! Oh yeah that guy!” casting of any movie this year.
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