S29E021 Preview – Giving calicivirus to furries

Melbourne Storm’s slim finals chances go on the line against a Souths team looking for their first ever regular season double against the Storm.

No old matches to look back upon this week despite Melbourne’s dominant record against Souths. Instead some thoughts were gestating in my head about the number of players Melbourne had used this season and how that compared to past seasons.

With 31 players used this season, it’s only a couple more than Melbourne’s long term average of 29 players used per season. With two players not available for the entirety of the season though, it could have been more in line with 2023 and 2024 when the club wheeled out the Renegades for a late season match in an attempt to rest a few of the regulars.

What has been unique to this year has been the sheer number of club and NRL debuts. There’s been 12 players new to the Storm this year, including six NRL debutants. The only year other than 1998 that has seen that number of new Storm players was Craig Bellamy’s first year at the club in 2003. The six newly minted NRL players this year isn’t a Storm record though — 2003, 2007, and 2013 all saw seven players make their first NRL appearances in Storm colours.

That led my down the path of trying to visualise what the experience mix was of Storm squads past. Was there ever any secret sauce to how to build the right amount of new faces and experienced players to past success…

Obviously the 1999 premiership squad was mostly players who were in Melbourne the previous season, with Stephen Kearney the main addition to the squad that contributed to the club’s first premiership.

During the 2006–2009 era, the mix across the players used was an even split between players in their first or second year at Olympic Park, with some key players in the cohorts playing five or more seasons during this season under Craig Bellamy. The underlying churn1 through this period remained constant at around nine players. That churn factor was slightly higher than Melbourne’s fairly consistent seven or eight changes from season to season. It makes sense in a way — in the NRL system, losing a quarter to a third of your playing squad each season feels about right when you factor in players who are looking for different opportunities or were tried and didn’t quite fit into the coaches’ plans. Especially true at a stable club like Melbourne where the coach has been at the helm for over two decades.2

What stuck out at me was how the Storm’s roster mix changed after 2010 on the way to winning the 2012 premiership. Players that received chances during the 2010 season and came to the club in 2011 slotted in around those players the club were able to retain, creating an experience mix that was slightly less experienced in club tenure, but more experienced in games played and age.3

Following the 2012 premiership, Melbourne’s big three start to skew the experience in tenure and games as Craig Bellamy plugged in a new cohort of players around Slater, Cronk and Smith.4 The average NRL experience in matches played of the 2017 premiership team reached 110, with only two players — Dale Finucane and Josh Addo-Carr having any NRL experience at any other club from the 17 players who won premiership rings that night against the Cowboys.5

A few years later, the 2020 premiership team had a very similar looking experience mix in games played and age to 2017, albeit with a greater number of players with six or more seasons in Storm colours.

Last year’s Grand Final defeat — the average experience was a full 20 games less than 2020,6 but the average age was similar. The difference was that the overall squad mix did skew towards longer tenured players as the club chased redemption from the 2024 defeat. Even though Melbourne lost to Toilet and his band of merry thieves, 2026 (and 2027) might have still seen the same kind of roster changes seen as the club reworked the experience mix as seen previously through the cycles of player development and new contracts.

What does it all mean? Well good coaching and relatively stable rosters are important ingredients to successful teams, but there is always a need for fresh faces. Ground breaking I know, but maybe the experienced gained by some players in 2026 will be important down the line as Melbourne try to build again on the road towards trophy number seven.

• Melbourne are undefeated in six previous matches played on 24 July. Melbourne have averaged just over 29 points per game on matches played on this date, resulting in big home wins in 1998, 2004, 2005, and 2010. As well as away wins in 2020 and 2025.

• South Sydney have never won consecutive games against Melbourne. They are the only active NRL team never to have achieved this feat.

• Since leaving Melbourne at the end of the 2022 season, Brandon Smith has played six matches against the Storm with the Souths win earlier this season the first time he’d won against his former teammates.

• The Storm have lost their last two matches at Stadium Australia, having won just five of ten matches at the venue since the 2020 Grand Final. Souths have won all five of their matches in Homebush this season.

• Alex Johnston has scored 19 tries in 16 matches against the Storm, including eight in his last three matches against Melbourne.

• Melbourne have lost three of their four matches ruined controlled by Ashley Klein in 2026.

Birthdays:

• 20 July: Matt Rua ⚡️026

• 24 July: Russell Bawden ⚡️016

• 26 July: Marika Koroibete ⚡️161

Blast from the past:

Storm clouds over Russ (Herald Sun/Ben Vernon)

21 July 2001

Queensland State of Origin forward Russell Bawden will almost certainly leave Melbourne Storm next season.

Already on the outer at the club, Bawden is expected to sign with the London Broncos or possibly the North Queensland Cowboys as soon as next week.

Storm halfback Matt Orford is also testing the murky waters of the player market and is considering exercising the “get-out” clause in his two-year contract.

Orford, considered behind only Andrew Johns as the form half, has been linked with several clubs, with St George Illawarra looming as favourite.

Orford said he was mystified by the speculation, but refused to confirm he would be at the Storm next season.

Bawden’s manager, Darren Bell, said he was still a slim chance to stay at Storm, despite a perceived lack of enthusiasm on the part of the club.

“I wouldn't write Melbourne off,” Bell said.

Storm chief executive Chris Johns said the club was keen to retain the veteran bench forward.

“We certainly want to keep him, we’ve just got to see how we are with the salary cap and what the make-up of the side is going to be next year,” Johns said. “That should become clearer in the next week or two.”

The Mt Isa product was dropped for the first time in his career at the Storm four weeks ago against the Sharks, but travelled with the team as the emergency reserve.

Bawden, who was selected for Queensland for State of Origin 2 this year, was dropped again for last night’s match against Parramatta, and will suffer the embarrassment of turning out for feeder side Brisbane Norths in their Queensland Cup match today.

Being dumped to reserve grade is believed to be the last straw for Bawden, who is likely to announce his departure next week.7 The impact forward played for the London Broncos in 1995–97 before joining the Storm in its first season, and the Richard Branson-owned club is keen to secure his services.

The Storm is believed to be keen to snare boom Brisbane prop Corey Parker, 19, and hope to sign him next week.8

Do you remember:

On 24 July 2004 in a match against Parramatta at Olympic Park, Matt Geyer was sent to the sin bin for the second (and final) time in his career. Boofa was put in the naughty corner by #SimpkinsIsADickhead early in this match for a professional foul on Parramatta winger Matt Petersen. The Eels would immediately score a try from the resultant penalty to take a 4–0 lead. Melbourne hit back though and took a 12–4 lead to the break. In the second half, Parramatta scored with two minutes to play — bringing the scores level at 16–all. With the match looking set for extra time, Matt Orford made a break, then followed up on the back of a Scott Hill pass to score a try with less than 20 seconds on the clock to win the match. It was Orford’s third try of the night to give the Storm a 22–16 win. Brian Smith was said to be apoplectic at the awarding of the final try by video referee Chris Ward, calling the decision a “disgrace.” Of course he ignored the fact that Ward had earlier denied Melbourne a try in the second half to Ben MacDougall, while the officials had missed an obvious forward pass in the leadup to a try to Fuifui Moimoi.

The postscript to this match was Alex Chan being suspended for four matches for a reckless high tackle on Nathan Hindmarsh. It was Chan’s third suspension for the 2004 season.9

Bonus blast from the past:

1. Sualauvi Fa’alogo

2. Siulagi Tuimalatu-Brown

3. Jack Howarth

4. Nick Meaney

5. Moses Leo

6. Tyran Wishart

7. Jahrome Hughes

8. Stefano Utoikamanu

9. Harry Grant ©

10. Josh King (200th NRL match)

11. Cooper Clarke

12. Oryn Keeley

13. Trent Loiero

14. Trent Toelau

15. Alec MacDonald

16. Angus Hinchey

17. Jack Hetherington

18. Stanley Huen

19. Manaia Waitere

20. Davvy Moale

21. Hugo Peel

22. Gabriel Satrick

Referee: Ashley Klein (Bunker: Grant Atkins)10
Forecast: Sunny/clear 5–17°C

Share

South Sydney Rabbitohs vs Melbourne Storm
— Accor Stadium, 8:00pm Friday 24 July 2026

Jahrome Hughes is back? Hopefully. His return will see him partner Tyran Wishart in the halves, with Trent Toelau moving back to the bench. If that helps Melbourne’s attack, then that would be a treat.

It’s not all good news. Will Warbrick’s injury means STB has been named in the number two jersey, while Moses Leo might be over his illness that kept him out last week. Manaia Waitere is in the squad though after his return via NSW Cup last week, so there could be room for a reshuffle.

Elsewhere in the squad it’s almost same old same. The exception is the potential NRL selection of Angus Hinchey who has been in good form in the NSW Cup. If he gets on the field it would be just his second NRL match after a brief cameo earlier in the season against the Dragons.

There is a milestone to celebrate this week as Josh King notches up his 200th NRL appearance. King made his NRL debut with the Knights in round 7 of the 2016 season — it wasn’t the most auspicious occasion for the Novocastrians as they were thrashed 53–0 against the Broncos at Lang Park. King would make 12 appearances that season, mostly coming off the bench under coach Nathan Brown. It wasn’t until his second appearance in 2017 that King would finally be on a winning Newcastle NRL team.

His first try for the Knights didn’t come until his 59th NRL appearance, scoring this try very late in Newcastle’s round 20 win over the Sharks.

After 78 appearances, King finished up his time in Newcastle at the end of the 2021 ahead of his move to Melbourne. He quickly established himself as one of Craig Bellamy’s favourites, taking home the Iron Bar from IDQ camp. His Storm debut was round 1 of the 2022 season against the Wests Tigers, scoring his first try in purple against the Bulldogs at AAMI Park in round four.

King has now scored 14 tries in his 121 Storm appearances to date, including a rare double against the Roosters last year. Well done on getting to 200 NRL matches.

No one asked for it, but here’s a five minute supercut of Josh King’s 14 tries for Melbourne.

Meanwhile over at the land of the Bunnies, they’ve got their own little injury crisis. Cameron Murray and Tallis Duncan have joined Latrell Mitchell in the stands, while David Fifita was suspended for kicking Hudson Young. Those outs might leave them a little short in the forward pack, but any team that has Cody Walker running the show and Alex Johnston out wide are going to be dangerous.

It was interesting hearing from Brandon Smith on 100% Footy this week as he talked about his travails and path towards sobriety. The comment about that he could “get away with more things” when he was in Melbourne compared to his time in The Bad Place was curious though. I’m not sure there were many in the organisation that disappointed when Cheese got his bag and went to Bondi. But it is nice to see that he might have turned over a new leaf, even if there is the looming criminal case against him in Queensland.

This week starts the first of three key matches for Melbourne. Win all three and they might make an appearance in the top eight. Lose one and it’s pretty much curtains for the Storm’s finals chances for 2026.11 Souths are one of the teams that are precariously holding onto a top eight berth as we enter the final weeks of the season. Their formline is all over the place, but they have been beating the teams they should defeat at Homebush. From their perspective, that should include this Melbourne team, especially after the thrashing they imparted upon the Storm at AAMI Park earlier this season. If that was a cathartic result having never beaten Melbourne in Victoria, doing the double might even see Wayne Bennett smile. It would certainly go a long way towards guaranteeing finals football for the Furries Bunnies.

Furries… sorry Souths have how many suited mascots now on match day?

Now I’m from Geelong where Thomas Austin has been credited blamed with unleashing rabbits on Australia back in 1859, but at least the CSIRO facility in East Geelong has been offering solutions to the rabbit problem for many years.

However, there’s been an explosion in the numbers of rabbits. None more so than at South Sydney where they now have five Bluey knockoffs mascots. That’s far too many furries people.

Oh, I was a little distracted there — let’s make a prediction this week.: Melbourne will win and keep their season alive for one more week. Actually, maybe scratch that, Souths will probably win in golden point or some rubbish and this cursed season can be done.12

The NSW Cup team will run out at Redfern Oval on Saturday (kickoff 2:30pm), a senior Melbourne team visiting the Bunnies old home paddock for the first time. Souths are fourth in this competition, Melbourne are second last. ‘nuff said?

It’s a doubleheader at Redfern with the Jersey Flegg match also on the schedule for Saturday (kickoff 12:15pm). Melbourne thrashed the Bunnies back in April, but since then they have won six of their eight matches. They’ll be looking to gear up for finals, Melbourne will be looking for their sixth win for the season.