Rocket Lab is building the next space empire

“Somewhere, something incredible is waiting to be known.” —Carl Sagan

Last week it was all about Elon Musk and SpaceX on the Substack and this week it’s all about Rocket Lab Corporation (NASDAQ: RKLB), a company with a “solar system of possibilities” that has my mind wandering (do you ever stay up late just thinking about outer space, anon?).

With the innovation coming from Rocket Lab and SpaceX—in addition to others like AST SpaceMobile Inc. (ASTS) that are making way for space exploration—life can be just like the movie Alien: where everyday people are actively traveling in between planets and it’s considered normal, even.

Located in Long Beach, California, Rocket Lab provides orbital launch services, spacecraft design, and satellite manufacturing.

In industry power rankings it typically places third among private launch providers—behind SpaceX and Blue Origin—making it a serious player rather than a fringe startup.

In my opinion, we need to start thinking about outer space as its own NAICS code VS just some “fun” thing we’re doing; this is serious business, not to mention, an infinite universe of possibilities to potentially solve problems here on Earth.

• Clear Street LLC: Buy, $129 (8/3)

• Citizens: Outperform, $130 (7/28)

• Morgan Stanley: Overweight/Attractive, $105 (7/27)

• KeyBanc Securities Co Ltd: Overweight, $135 (7/27)

• Stifel: Buy, $132 (7/21)

• Piper Sandler Co: Neutral, $83 (7/15)

• Goldman Sachs: Neutral, $77 (7/13)

• TD Cowen: Buy, $120 (7/12)

• Baird: Outperform, $100 (7/10)

• Needham: Buy, $120 (6/30)

• Cantor Fitzgerald: Overweight, $96 (6/30)

• Strong top-line growth: Revenue more than doubled from 2023-2025 (+146%) and is projected to rise another 52% in 2026E to 917

• Gross profit expansion: Gross profit grew from 51 to 207 (2023–2025) and is expected to reach 366 in 2026E. Gross margin improved from 21% (2023) to 34% (2025) and 40% (2026E)

• Operating expenses still high: OpEx continues to rise with scale, keeping the company unprofitable on an operating basis so far

• EPS & EBITDA trends: GAAP EPS has been steady at –0.38 through 2025, with modest improvement in LTM (–0.32) and further improvement expected in 2026E (–0.25). EBITDA remains deeply negative but is forecast to improve sharply to –49 in 2026E

• Note on 2026E: Several line items (Sales & Service, Cost of Rev, Cost of Goods & Services, OpEx) were not provided in the estimate

• Q2 2026 Earnings:

  • Revenue Guidance: Projected between $225M and $240M for the quarter.

  • Wall Street Estimates: Consensus sits around $231.6M with an expected EPS loss of $0.06.

  • Investor Focus: Evaluating actual results against guidance, watching the path to 2027 net profitability, monitoring backlog conversion, and seeking definitive timeline updates for the Neutron first flight.

  Continued Electron & HASTE Cadence + Bookings:

  • Record Bookings: Reached massive milestones in early 2026 with 31 Electron/HASTE missions and 5 Neutron launches booked.

  • Active Deals: Maintaining a high launch cadence with multi-launch contracts locked in for key customers like NASA.

  • Revenue Driver: Escalating toward an estimated 30 total Electron launches for the full year 2026, driving steady near-term revenue.

  Neutron First Flight:

  • Strategic Catalyst: Serves as the company’s major entry into the highly profitable medium-lift, reusable rocket market to rival SpaceX’s Falcon 9.

  • Pre-Flight Bookings: Five dedicated Neutron contracts are already secured with a confidential commercial customer.

  • Current Status: Undergoing intense development milestones, including hot-fire testing of its proprietary Archimedes engine.

  Large Defense / National Security Wins:

  • Record Contract: Secured a $266M contract with the U.S. Space Force Space Systems Command through 2028.

  • Mission Scope: Covers 12 dedicated suborbital launches (plus 6 options) focused on hypersonic testing and missile defense.

  • Execution: Set to fly primarily out of the Pacific Spaceport Complex in Kodiak, Alaska, beginning no earlier than late 2026.

  Iridium Communications Acquisition:

  • Historic Consolidation: Announced a definitive $8 billion mega-acquisition of Iridium Communications in June 2026

  • Strategic Shift: Strengthens Rocket Lab’s existing vertical integration by adding Iridium’s profitable L-band satellite network and spectrum, moving the company deeper into recurring space applications and services

  • Financial Impact: Adds immense scale by absorbing Iridium’s highly profitable L-band satellite network, instantly injecting roughly $871.7M in recurring revenue and $495M in OEBITDA (based on prior-year performance) into the combined entity

  Space Systems Segment:

  • Core Growth Engine: Moves beyond launch vehicles to manufacture full spacecraft, components, flight software, and solar panels

  • Expanded Capabilities: Augmented by the 2026 acquisition of a specialized space robotics company to broaden component manufacturing capabilities

  • Constellation Support: Provides high-margin revenue streams that directly subsidize and absorb the high capital expenditures required to develop the Neutron rocket

  Liquidity & Scale:

  • Total Backlog: Exploded to a record $2.2 billion exiting the first half of the year

  • Cash Position: Bolstered by deep capital reserves, holding over $2 billion in total liquidity to fund aggressive M&A execution and infrastructure scaling

  • Refinancing Risks: Dilution risks remain a close point of evaluation for Wall Street due to the equity-heavy structure of the massive Iridium acquisition.

  Broader Demand:

  • Macro Environment: Driven by an industry-wide push toward Low Earth Orbit (LEO) commercial constellations and responsive military space applications

  • Predictable Pipeline: Approximately 37% of Rocket Lab’s massive backlog is scheduled to convert to revenue within 12 months. This drastically reduces the company’s reliance on “one-off” launch contract wins to hit its aggressive growth targets

Overall, I am really bullish on Rocket Lab in the long term for profitability by mid-2027. The space sentiment is completely fresh versus themes like AI that seem extended, so it could be a chance to diversify into a completely new sector.

Will you be buying either RKLB or SPCX?

As always, this is not investment advice. Always do your own due diligence before investing in any company. Markets are volatile—manage risk accordingly.