🇫🇷⚛French Politics #17: Atomic Ambitions

In the whirlwind of geopolitical turbulence, Emmanuel Macron once again positions himself as Dux Europae, Europe's self-styled leader. The vortex of transformations over recent weeks must feel somewhat vindicating: his September 2017 address at the Sorbonne, in which he advocated for a European Defence Fund, a more unified continent and his concept of "strategic autonomy" was met with polite scepticism in other capitals (your correspondent was equally unconvinced at the time).

As Europe processes the sobering reality that the US is no longer the steadfast ally it has been for eight decades, few still dispute the necessity for strategic autonomy. Macron holds the formidable trump card for this purpose: la bombe atomique, Charles de Gaulle's legacy designed to preserve the Republic's stature in a superpower-dominated world. The current French president has flirted for years with giving the force de frappe a European dimension. Even in 1972, then-Defence Minister Michel Debré acknowledged that French security couldn't be viewed in isolation from Europe – though this hardly meant Paris was prepared to share its ultimate instrument of power. France views its nuclear arsenal as a sovereign tool: only the president decides on its deployment. Defence Minister Sébastien Lecornu reiterated last week: "It is French, and it will remain French." Marine Le Pen too staunchly opposes any ‘demographic replacement’ of France’s nuclear arsenal.

The key question now: will France’s nuclear arsenal truly shield Europe? Expanding the nuclear umbrella would demand enormous investments and seismic political shifts – something Paris currently has no appetite for. Even if Germany or other European nations contribute financially, the decision remains exclusively French. Yet something is stirring. Friedrich Merz, Germany’s next chancellor, recently called for discussions about shared nuclear protection, a sentiment other EU member states now echoing. Last week, Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk revealed he's conducting “serious conversations” with Macron about French nuclear protection for Poland – a remarkable shift for a nation traditionally reliant on American nuclear guarantees within NATO. Denmark and Lithuania are also showing interest in France’s nuclear umbrella, while Belgium advocates developing European nuclear weapons alongside the French arsenal. The Netherlands, meanwhile, remains among the most staunchly Atlanticist adherents: The Hague still counts on American atomic protection.

🗣️ Dialogue

Macron now proposes a “strategic dialogue” where European partners can participate in exercises like Poker (the French equivalent of NATO's Steadfast Noon drills) conducted quarterly. This symbolic cooperation offers European nations a sense of involvement without France relinquishing ultimate control. More practical collaborations, such as positioning French nuclear aircraft on European bases or joint financing for modernising French deterrence capabilities, are being considered. However, as François Mitterrand declared in 1994: "The decision over French nuclear weapons will never be transferred to an alliance, not even to our most loyal allies." The French parapluie nucléaire remains an exclusively French umbrella, designed as much to project national prestige as to provide proper collective security. And so Emmanuel Macron, in the finest Gaullist tradition, remains the only European with a finger on the red button. I hope you will sleep tight knowing that the French President alone holds the key to Europe's ultimate deterrent.

Now that Jean-Marie Le Pen has traded the temporal for the eternal, the coming weeks will reveal whether his daughter, Marine, is facing a political death of her own. First up, the Conseil constitutionnel will decide on Monday whether a convicted politician automatically loses their mandate—even if they appeal. The ruling is crucial ahead of a Paris court’s verdict in exactly two weeks, on 31 March, in the case of alleged misuse of EU funds for RN parliamentary assistants, including Le Pen herself.

She risks two years in prison and a five-year ban from running for office under ‘provisional execution’ (which, despite its ominous name, simply means that the sentence takes effect immediately, appeal or no appeal). Should the ruling go against her, Marine Le Pen would be locked out of the 2027 presidential race.

That would be “deeply undemocratic,” she declared yesterday. Her ally Viktor Orbán, ever the optimist, sees little reason for concern—he still expects her to be president in two years.

✚✚✚ 🤷🏽‍♂️ MEP Jordan Bardella (Rassemblement National/Patriots for Europe) visits Israel in two weeks. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has invited the leader of the once openly antisemitic party for a conference. ✚✚✚ 🙋🏼‍♂️Coucou 2027! Dominique de Villepin (71) has suddenly reappeared everywhere. A genuine media frenzy surrounds the man who was prime minister under Jacques Chirac 20 years ago. He's reportedly warming up for the 2027 presidential elections. De Villepin tried twice before, in 2007 and 2012, without success. The gossip magazine Gala has already compiled various juicy details about De Villepin. ✚✚✚ 🚓 Recent weeks have seen numerous politicians encountering the judicial system. A brief selection: Jean-Marie Bernard, president of the Hautes-Alpes region, received a 12-month suspended sentence for corruption. A local councillor from a Breton village assaulted his GP and is now ineligible for election for five years, plus a €1,000 fine. The far-left LFI party has been particularly colourful: MP Jean-Hugues Ratenon received six months suspended for drunk driving. His colleague Sébastien Delogu must pay €5,000 for violence against two school staff members. He's appealing, naturally. ✚✚✚ ☀️ No holiday plans yet? Time Magazine has listed Hotel de la Plage in Cap Ferret among the world's 100 most beautiful locations.✚✚✚

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