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In Q1 I set a test to separate a real margin inflection from a Ramadan calendar boost. Shopee cleared it cleanly. Here's my read on the quarter across Shopee, Monee and Garena, including the Costco playbook hiding inside ShopeeVIP. The post Sea Limited Q2 2026: From Promise to Proof appeared first on Steady Compounding .
Booking Holdings is up roughly 24% since I published "Why the AI Bear Case Has It Backwards" in February, as the market starts to shrug off the AI fears for now. But there are two things in this quarter's numbers I think are important to flag: the cost of the search transition, which is now visible in Booking's marketing line, and what Airbnb is doing on the other side of it. The post Airbnb Grew…
Amazon reported $62.6 billion of net income and 20% revenue growth. Neither number is quite what it looks like. The real story is the $496 billion of AWS revenue already under contract. The post Amazon Q2 2026: The Half a Trillion Dollar AWS Backlog appeared first on Steady Compounding .
Meta just posted 28% revenue growth and the stock sold off anyway. The reason sits in one number: free cash flow of $784 million for the entire quarter, down from $8.5 billion a year ago. I went through the filings to see where the money went. The post Meta Grew 28% and the Stock Dropped, What Happened? appeared first on Steady Compounding .
Advertising has gone from 78% of revenue to 68% while Cloud grew 82%. Everybody focused on the $195 to $205 billion capex guide, which can be revised and will be. Buried in Note 10 sits $707 billion of commitments that can't, plus what Alphabet had to do in June to fund them. The post Alphabet Q2 2026: The $707 Billion Footnote appeared first on Steady Compounding .
The market was certain Netflix was broken in 2022, certain it was invincible in 2025, and certain it's stalling today. Through all three, operating profit compounded 132%. Here's whether it's wrong a third time at 20x earnings. The post Netflix: The Pendulum Swings Back appeared first on Steady Compounding .
Everyone read Berkshire's Alphabet stake as Greg Abel's mark on the portfolio. Buffett's answer: "I initiated it." The full CNBC conversation, cleaned up and readable, covering Alphabet, Apple, what makes a good business, and the end of the Gates Foundation pledge. The post Buffett Reveals the $31 Billion Alphabet Bet Was His Call: Full CNBC Interview Transcript (July 2026) appeared first on…
A reader asked which stocks I'd buy today with a fresh $100,000, and whether to split it between two. On the split, my answer was no. Here are the six I'd actually start with, and why the market has them on sale. The post The $100k Stock Market Shopping List (July 2026 Edition) appeared first on Steady Compounding .
As recently as late May, Meta had no plans to take on AWS. Five weeks later it's selling its excess compute. Here's who actually gets squeezed if AI demand turns, and why it isn't the hyperscalers. The post Meta’s Five-Week Flip, and Why I’d Watch the Neoclouds appeared first on Steady Compounding .
This is the first of a three-part deep dive on Shopify (Nasdaq/TSX: SHOP). Part 1 covers the business model and how Shopify actually makes money. Part 2 covers the $2 billion detour, the Amazon threat, and AI. Part 3 covers the financials, capital allocation, and valuation. Shopify is a fundamentally different business than it was […] The post Shopify Deep Dive Part 1: The Falling Margin That…
There's a generational buildout going on right now, and big tech is buying memory chips the way people panic-bought toilet paper in 2020. When demand spikes that fast, you get the same thing you got at the supermarket back then: empty shelves. The post The Memory Chip Boom, and Why I’m Not Chasing It appeared first on Steady Compounding .
I keep circling the same tension with Microsoft: a wonderful business I can never quite buy at the price I want. The multiple has finally come back to earth, but the bigger question now isn't valuation. It's a single relationship, OpenAI, and whether nearly half the backlog riding on it is a risk or an edge. The post Microsoft: Is OpenAI an Asset or a Liability? appeared first on Steady…