TechXGeopolitics #15: War Devastates Sudan

Welcome to my newsletter, where I set out to highlight significant, yet un- or underreported recent news and trends at the intersection of geopolitics and tech. 

Why the intersection of technology and geopolitics? The future of geopolitics will be shaped by today’s tech advances, yet the two topics are often isolated from one another in journalism and geopolitical analysis. This newsletter strives to bridge the gap while also spotlighting relevant work by emerging and veteran writers in independent media.

Feedback on this newsletter’s format and content is more than welcome — please feel free to comment on this page, or write to me at stavroula.pabst@proton.me. Thank you for reading!

War Devastates Sudan

An underreported, yet acute, crisis is ongoing in Sudan, where a war between the government Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) and the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF) has fractured the country for over a year with little end in sight. 

The RSF is not a rebel group; they were created by Sudan’s Bashir regime and are recognized by law. As Ellen Ioanes wrote at Vox, “at the baseline, [the conflict] was two different factions of the military feuding over which one got to be in charge.”

Critically, the RSF forces are a kind of rebranded Janjaweed, a militant group that had committed genocide in Sudan’s Darfur region about twenty years ago. The RSF has now once again been accused of war crimes including terror attacks, rape, and ethnic killings in Darfur, especially against Massalit and other non-Arab tribes, leading some to fear the Janjaweed have returned to finish the genocide they previously started.

Because the SAF and RSF are comparable forces in size and strength, the struggle over the country is existential and destructive. Controlling a majority of Sudan’s capital, Khartoum, the RSF also appears to have gained an upper hand in rural areas, thus choking off much of the SAF’s infrastructure and supply chains. The now Port Sudan-based SAF reported, however, that it had taken the national TV and radio headquarters back from RSF in mid-March, thus regaining critical infrastructure.

Altogether, the war appears to be at a near-unbreakable deadlock, bringing unimaginable devastation to the Sudanese people. At the time of writing, tens of thousands of civilians have been killed in the conflict, and almost 9 million people (in a country of about 50 million) have either been internally displaced or forced to flee Sudan altogether, making it the world’s largest ongoing displacement crisis. About half the Sudanese population is in need of humanitarian aid, with the country on the verge of famine.

Brewing Proxy Conflict?

"Israel is deeply committed to ensuring that the military, whether its Hemedti or Burhan or some combination of the two - dominate the politics of Sudan" 

 — Dr. Nader Hashemi, Director of the Center for Middle East Studies at the University of Denver's Josef Korbel School of International Studies, May 2023

But other players are afoot in Sudan; namely, the involvement of regional players including Israel, the United Arab Emirates, and Russia must also be considered.

Back in May 2023, journalist Shady Ibrahim wrote in Middle East Eye that “victory for the RSF could be politically and economically advantageous to Israel's regional agenda.” Namely, Ibrahim posited that RSF victory could help Israel curb adversary Iran’s influence in the region while also facilitating more trade opportunities.

In April of this year, Military Africa reported that the RSF was using Israeli weapons, though such weapons could be from a previous trade deal or otherwise obtained via the extensive illicit arms trade in the country. Notably, Israel has also been involved with peace mediation attempts in Sudan.

Sudan has also accused the United Arab Emirates of supporting the RSF, with United Nations Security Council reports suggesting the UAE supported the RSF through arms deals and adjacent weapons flow through neighboring Chad. Al Mayadeen English reported in May, further, that RSF soldiers were receiving military training in Saudi Arabia.

The SAF is also receiving international support — which appears double-sided. Reestablishing diplomatic ties with Sudan in October 2023, Iran is supplying the SAF with drones (Sudanese officials have denied this) and anti-tank missiles. The SAF is providing Iran’s Navy with access to Sudanese ports in turn. But matters remain complex, with some alleging that Iran is arming both sides. And while Russia has gradually moved to strengthen relations with the SAF, establishing plans to build a Russian naval installation on Sudan’s Red Sea Coast, Russia’s Wagner group has reportedly also supplied the RSF with weapons.

At the time of writing, other states’ involvement in Sudan’s war remains a complex matter deserving further investigation.

Sudan/Israel Relations

After decades of non-recognition of Israel, a tentative 2020 Israel–Sudan agreement to normalize relations, mediated by the United States with a goal of ostracizing Iran, was finalized in February of last year. The subsequent break out of conflict between the SAF and RSF, however, ultimately hampered the deal’s formal completion.

Critically, attempts to break the diplomatic “ice” break the Arab League’s historic 1967 "Three Nos" principle (i.e., no peace, negotiations, or formal recognition of Israel), established as a strategy to regain lost territories after the Arab countries’ defeat in the 1967 Six Day War with Israel.

“We are (now) building a new reality with the Sudanese, in which the 'Three Nos' will become the 'Three Yeses',” Israeli Foreign Minister Eli Cohen had exclaimed in light of ongoing normalization efforts. "Yes to negotiations between Israel and Sudan, yes to recognition of Israel and yes to peace between the states and between the peoples."

But such efforts aren’t popular with everyone; in 2020, senior Palestinian Liberation Organization official Wasel Abu Youssef called the prospective normalization agreement a "new stab in the back and a betrayal of the just Palestinian cause.” As of spring 2023, further, the majority of Sudanese people opposed the normalization of diplomatic relations with Israel. 

While circumstances appear subject to change, Anne-Sophie Sebban-Bécache and Simon Seroussi recently opined in the Atlantic Council blog that the genocide in Gaza has not impeded a trend towards growing African diplomatic ties with Israel, observing that African states are avoiding “drastic diplomatic steps against Israel” in light of recent normalization efforts. In contrast, a ban on Israeli passports in the Maldives and Colombia, Bolivia, and Belize all cutting off diplomatic relations with Israel showcase an international trend towards deteriorating relations with Israel over its genocide against the Palestinian people.

IDF Hostage Raid in Central Gaza Devastates Palestinians

“People’s bodies were in pieces, scattered in the streets, and blood stained the walls.”

– Abdel Salam Darwish, a Palestinian, telling the BBC about the IDF raid in Central Gaza

"It was like a horror movie but this was a real massacre. Israeli drones and warplanes fired all night randomly at people's houses and at people who tried to flee the area…To free four people, Israel killed dozens of innocent civilians.”

– Ziad, a paramedic in Nuseirat

Israeli forces recently rescued four hostages/POWs held by Hamas in a violent daytime raid on the Nuseirat camp in central Gaza, killing about 270 Palestinians and wounding almost 700. The episode, showcasing Israeli forces’ blatant disregard for Palestinian life, marks one of the bloodiest days in Gaza since October 7. (Some held captive were IDF members when captured by Hamas, making them prisoners of war, or POWs, rather than hostages.)

Hamas’ al-Qassam Brigades allege that Israeli forces’ rescue efforts killed three Israeli captives in the process of rescuing others. Indeed, Israel’s killed its own on numerous occasions since October 7th. Noa Argamani, one of the now freed prisoners of war, previously alleged that IDF airstrikes killed fellow captives, and former captive Louis Har recently provided Haaretz with a similar perspective:

Our greatest fear [while held captive] was the IDF's planes and the concern that they would bomb the building we were in. I was a soldier myself once. But the feeling that it could be our own bombs, our own planes – that this is what would kill us – that's very scary and very anxiety-inducing.

Other reporting since October 7th (see examples here, here, and here) has likewise elucidated how Israeli forces and strikes have repeatedly put captives’ lives at risk, or even killed captives, since October 7. As Stephen Semler described matters in Jacobin, “Israeli forces have shown that they’re more likely to kill hostages than rescue them,” highlighting the December 2023 incident where the IDF “shot three hostages dead in broad daylight” even though the hostages were waving a white flag. 

Western Boots on the Ground in Gaza?

“The suspicion is that the [aid pier] project, while ostensibly ‘facilitating’ aid delivery, might also allow for increased control over the entirety of Gaza under the guise of humanitarian assistance. This control could potentially streamline Israel’s military operations and fortify its strategic positions within Gaza, ultimately influencing the broader geopolitical dynamics of the conflict.”

– The Cradle columnist Suat Delgen, May 2024

Reporting from The Cradle suggests that the US aid pier recently built off the Gaza strip was used to assist the recent IDF hostage/POW retrieval operation. A source cited is a video circulating on X, where the pier is apparently commandeered to transport the hostages/POWs rescued in the IDF raid. US forces deny the claim. 

According to reporting from Axios, likewise, an American unit assisted the IDF raid, with the New York Times also reporting that US and UK intelligence teams have been in Gaza since October 7, ultimately providing the IDF forces with key information used to retrieve those held captive in recent days.

Press TV appearance: I appeared on Press TV last week to discuss recent Israeli attacks on an United Nations Relief and Works Agency for Palestine Refugees (UNRWA) school in central Palestine, where an estimated 6,000 people were sheltering. The attack killed at least 45 people, many of them children. At the time of writing, more than 170 buildings run by UNRWA, many operating as shelters, have been destroyed since October 7. Watch. (A shorter clip is available on X in case of technical difficulties with the link provided.) 

Universal Basic Compute? Why OpenAI’s Sam Altman Wants You To Own a Slice of ChatGPT

“The idea of replacing money, which is somewhere around 5,000 years old, with access to a large language model might seem utterly fantastical. But the fact that Altman so casually entertains it sends a crystal clear message to the rest of society about his, and his peers’, world-upending ambitions.”

– Derek Robertson, Politico

OpenAI CEO Sam Altman thinks the future economy could revolve around giving you — and everyone on earth — universal access to his product. Namely, during a recent “All In” podcast appearance, Altman pondered the prospects of “universal basic compute,” where everyone receives a “slice of OpenAI’s productivity.” 

“[T]hey can use it, they can resell it, they can donate it to somebody to use for cancer research,” Altman suggested in the podcast episode. “What you get is not dollars, but you own a part of the productivity.” Altman also pondered whether “universal basic compute” could replace another policy idea, universal basic income (UBI), where people would universally receive regular incomes to cover basic living costs, like utilities and housing.

Interestingly, Altman is a long time universal basic income (UBI) proponent himself, even trialing the concept while heading startup accelerator Y Combinator. Meanwhile, Altman’s ongoing work at Worldcoin, which he co-founded with Alex Blania, has an end goal of producing AI-powered UBI and distributing it to the world’s population via Worldcoin infrastructure and the Worldcoin cryptocurrency (WLD). 

Altman may genuinely believe UBI, or his own proposal of universal basic compute, will help alleviate poverty and improve quality of life. But if Altman or his enterprises somehow facilitate UBI, as his own efforts suggest, he seems slated to garner tangible leverage over a population partially or wholly dependent on his economic assistance. Along similar lines, as Derek Robertson observes in reporting for Politico, giving everyone a small slice of OpenAI’s productivity (i.e. universal basic compute) would theoretically put Altman’s OpenAI at the heart of the economy, and maybe even undermine the use of money itself.

Ultimately, the arrangement could give Altman unprecedented influence through means he publicly depicts as altruistic.

Thank you for reading this newsletter, and for your continued support — this newsletter now has almost 800 free subscribers! Please know that your time and support is appreciated as it makes my work possible.

Subscriber drive: To be able to keep reporting and writing this newsletter, I would like to raise several more paid subscriptions (yearly or monthly) within the next month. To accomplish this goal, I am currently offering paid subscriptions at 40 percent off through June 23 — redeem your offer here!

If you felt this newsletter was worth reading, please do consider a paid subscription or sharing my substack with your friends, family, and colleagues. Doing so helps keep this work accessible to everyone, without a paywall.

Enjoy the rest of your week!

.