If you follow punditry, scroll through your social media feed, or have been added to a candidate’s email list, you’ve almost certainly heard the prediction that 2026 is shaping up to be a blue wave.
It would be easy to dismiss that as optimistic messaging that Democrats are using to energize voters and donors — but when you look beyond the rhetoric, you’ll notice that nearly every major indicator we have heading into November is pointing in the same direction:
History favors the party out of power. In 20 of the last 22 midterm elections, the president’s party has lost ground in the U.S. House.
Trump enters this election from a historically weak position. His approval ratings are among the lowest of his presidency, adding another significant headwind for Republicans to the structural disadvantage the president’s party already faces in a midterm.
Democratic enthusiasm is translating into actual votes. This year alone, Democratic voters cast more than 16 million primary ballots, compared to 12.4 million for Republicans. Democratic turnout increased 40% from the last midterm cycle, while participation increased in more than 90% of House primaries.
Taken together, the evidence suggests Democrats may be entering one of the strongest electoral environments the party has seen in decades.
Here’s what all the data won’t tell you: even if Democrats retake the House, with Donald Trump still in the White House, it is unlikely these electoral gains will translate to meaningful policy change. At best, we can expect harm reduction.
But harm reduction simply isn’t enough at a time when working families are struggling with the cost of housing, childcare, groceries, and healthcare, while the federal minimum wage has been frozen at $7.25 an hour since 2009.
Democrats need to invest in places where winning elections can actually translate into governing power immediately. Our communities deserve more than electoral victories that change who holds office without changing the material conditions of their lives.
This November, 83% of state legislative seats will be decided, including competitive districts where shifts in turnout and political enthusiasm can determine control of entire chambers. And the political environment is just as favorable down the ballot as it is at the top of the ticket.
Since Trump’s election, Republicans haven’t flipped a single Democratic-held state legislative seat, while Democrats have flipped 30 seats and continued making gains across the country — including deep-red seats Trump carried in 2024.
Winning in state races this November is the difference between someone being able to get an abortion without crossing state lines. It means an hourly worker having paid time off and a child having access to free school lunch.
Democrats have spent months talking about the possibility of a blue wave, but less time considering which seats could actually produce the most change for working people.
Without sufficiently investing in state legislative races, the party risks wasting one of the rare electoral environments where we can bring material change for millions of people.
States Win exists because traditional Democratic strategy has undervalued state legislatures, while Republicans have made state power a core part of their mission for decades.
When States Win was founded in 2017, Democrats held just six state trifectas. Today, Democrats hold 16. That means roughly 82.5 million more people live in states where Democrats control the governorship and both chambers of the legislature.
Those new blue trifecta states have gone on to abolish the death penalty, provide free breakfast and lunch for public school students, protect abortion access, increase wages, protect LGBTQ youth, and much more.
If 2026 develops into the wave election the evidence suggests it could be, we can’t allow the opportunity to end at the top of the ballot. That’s why this year, States Win is making our largest number of endorsements to turn a favorable national environment into lasting Democratic power in state legislatures across the country.
We’ve already invested in 55 incredible community leaders across Arizona, Georgia, Iowa, Indiana, Kansas, Michigan, Minnesota, North Carolina, Ohio, New Hampshire, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin — with more strategic endorsements on the way.
These are first-time candidates and vulnerable incumbents, teachers and attorneys, parents and community advocates, nurses and organizers. They are people who know their communities because they live, work, raise families, and build their lives in them — and they’re stepping up to fight for their neighbors who call these states home.
Between now and November, there will be no shortage of organizations, pundits, and political strategists telling you what a blue wave could mean for Congress. But if Washington D.C. is the only place Democrats look for opportunity, we will have fundamentally underestimated the scale of what 2026 could make possible.
Join States Win in making sure this blue wave reaches every level of the ballot.
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