Republicans Have a 17-Seat Problem

For years, national Democrats have been fighting the same battle on the same terrain.

Every election cycle, hundreds of millions of dollars pour into a familiar set of battleground states. The goal is to win a handful of marquee races and stop the worst outcomes.

But there is a consequence to concentrating so much attention in so few places: large parts of the country have effectively been written off.

When the DNC’s post-election autopsy was released, much of the conversation focused on what was missing from the report. But to us, one finding stood out: Voters are tired of watching red states be politically abandoned by the Democratic Party. The report said:

Worse, Republicans have been relentless at the state policy level, reversing worker protections, enacting restrictions on voting, gutting essential services that Americans have paid for and depend on for their quality of life, and denying pathways of opportunity to and advancement to those most in need. While state legislative Democrats combat these changes when and where they can, in too many states they lack the legislative numbers to stop Republicans.

Voters in these states may see Democratic policy as the preferable alternative to Republicans authoritarian advancement, but the inability to offer any substantive effective electoral opposition impacts perspectives and opinions about the party.

Republicans have invested patiently and relentlessly in state legislatures, particularly in states where Democrats assumed the map was out of reach.

The result is a political landscape in the South and Midwest where Republican supermajorities dominate. A supermajority allows one party to override governors, ignore public opinion, and pass sweeping legislation with little fear of accountability. In many states, supermajorities have enabled attacks on reproductive freedom, weakened labor protections, undermined public education, and made it harder for communities to hold elected officials accountable.

What makes this situation especially frustrating is how close many of these states actually are.

In Ohio, Kansas, Indiana, and New Hampshire combined, Democrats only need to flip 17 state legislative seats to break four Republican supermajorities.

Seventeen seats. Not seventeen chambers. Not seventeen statewide offices. Seventeen state legislative districts spread across four states.

For all the discussion about rebuilding Democratic power, this is one of the clearest opportunities in the country.

Yet these races rarely attract national attention. They do not generate cable news coverage. They are not the focus of presidential campaigns. Most voters outside their districts will never hear about them.

That is precisely why they matter.

Our efforts prove that relatively small investments in overlooked legislative races can produce outsized results. Last year, States Win helped end Republican supermajorities in both the Iowa and Mississippi Senates by investing early in three candidates who ultimately flipped their seats.

The political environment heading into 2026 suggests similar opportunities may be emerging.

Historically, midterm elections tend to serve as a referendum on the party in power. The president’s party almost always loses ground as voters look to impose a check on Washington. But the conditions developing ahead of 2026 appear especially favorable for Democrats.

Closed primary data shows Democratic voters participating at higher rates than in comparable midterm cycles. At the same time, public polling indicates that Donald Trump’s approval ratings have declined significantly from where they stood just six months ago, particularly on economic issues and the cost of living.

That matters because state legislatures are often where voters feel the consequences of economic policy most directly. Decisions about housing, health care, education, infrastructure, and worker protections are made in state capitals every day.

Since January 2025, Republicans have failed to flip a single state legislative seat. Meanwhile, a growing number of Republican incumbents are dropping out of their re-elections, likely fearing these trends.

For example in Wisconsin, Democrats need just two seats to take control of the State Senate, yet one in five Republican legislators have retired rather than face voters in November.

None of this guarantees Democratic victories. But it does suggest something important: the Republican grip on many state legislatures is not nearly as secure as it appears.

At States Win, we are taking a serious look at the opportunities we have to disrupt unchecked Republican political power. Our research indicates it’s possible to break GOP supermajorities in Indiana, Kansas, New Hampshire, and Ohio this cycle – a few strategic states that national Democrats have overlooked for years.

We’ve already identified strong candidates who we believe have a real path to victory, and our support could make the difference.

If you’ve read this far and believe in this mission, we would love your support to make this plan possible. Whether it’s a donation of whatever is feasible for you or simply sharing this post, every action helps.