I have railed against the Great Patriotic Labor Shortage for months - and I have no intention of stopping. The policy is as stupid as it is cruel. It is also deeply unpopular - to the point where the Viceroy is now 12 points underwater in the latest polling (Silver Bulletin).
Looking ahead to November, one would think that local and state-level offices might allow some protection against the anti-Trump onslaught. After all, they have no control over federal policy. Unfortunately for Republicans, the Great Patriotic Labor Shortage is…different.
ICE’s street-level “presence” has forced local and state authorities into all sorts of extraordinary activity to protect their constituents. As a result, elections that could counter the national trend are instead swept up in it.
Exhibit A for that is New York, where Governor Kathy Hochul is running for a second full term. Her last election (2022) was a seven-point squeaker that was a surprise even for a bad Democratic year (as 2022 actually was)1. Hochul was considered especially vulnerable for a Democrat in 2026 - before the Great Patriotic Labor Shortage took its toll.
Now? Well, as Mayor Mamdani put it (via Aaron Rupar).
If a New Yorker looks at what ICE is doing and wants to see more of it, they should vote for Bruce Blakeman, who has created his own militia in Nassau County. If they look at what ICE is doing and they are shocked by the inhumanity and cruelty, they should vote for Gov. Kathy Hochul.
Never mind Blakeman’s record governing Nassau County (for good or for ill). Never mind Hochul’s record, for that matter. The Viceroy’s bloody campaign to bleach the nation has made every election a national election. In this case, Hochul already has a lead larger than her margin of victory in 2022 (Siena) - and odds are that will grow as Election Day nears.2
Usually, anyone running with their party in power wants to pretend national issues don’t exist in their local race. ICE’s behavior in 2026 makes nationalized elections unavoidable.
While the Democrats famously maintained Senate control in 2022 and minimized their losses in the House to a handful of seats, it was still enough to lose the lower chamber while the popular vote for House members went Republican for the first time since 2016.
Usually, candidates for the party out of power see their support rise as voting gets nearer. Hochul herself faced this is 2022 when her support stayed in the low 50s while her Republican opponent jumped from the high 30s in summer to 46% in November.
No posts
Comments
Nothing yet. Say the first thing.
Sign in to join the conversation.