At Manchester United, we have grown accustomed to the club only being one underwhelming result away from a crisis. However, following Tuesday evening’s dispiriting draw at home with Wolves, none of the talk around the club is about the future of United’s head coach, Ruben Amorim. Instead, there’s a sense of waiting, with patience being the byword. What exactly we’re waiting for is still unclear. While I have maintained that Amorim should remain in charge until at least the summer, I can understand fans questioning the direction of the club. Have the board put their eggs in the wrong basket? Are their intentions admirable, but equally a form of self-sabotage? Am I rooting for the wrong guy?
Amorim certainly talks a good game, and when his football has clicked, it really has clicked – the 4-2 win over Brighton earlier this season being the clearest example of this, when United could very easily have scored eight goals. Performances such as that are still an irregularity at the moment, but there have also been caveats, namely absentees due to AFCON, and injuries to both Matthijs de Ligt and Harry Maguire, meaning United have lacked that physical presence in the backline recently.
Still, one of the biggest challenges for any United manager is overcoming adversity while managing the politics of being a United manager. When considering some of the names that have left the club over the past six months, some fans would argue that the negatives outweigh the positives with Amorim. When both Alejandro Garnacho and Marcus Rashford departed in the summer, albeit with Rashford only leaving on a loan deal, I felt the time was right in both cases. While Rashford had shown his qualities on numerous occasions, for whatever reason, he appeared to lose that fight in recent seasons. Garnacho, someone who would consistently show real glimpses of quality, never felt like someone the club were going to be able to rely on, and his departure to Chelsea felt like a very Chelsea signing to make. At Chelsea, he has performed in the same manner as he had throughout his time at United: flashes of real quality, sporadic finishing, constant endeavour, but regularly frustrating.
With Kobbie Mainoo, a departure would feel very different. His very first league start, a 3-0 win against Everton at Goodison Park in November 2023, where he was named man of the match, was one that all clubs are crying out for. A progressive, front-footed player, comfortable receiving the ball under pressure, showing levels of maturity not often seen at United over recent years, lifted the mood around the club. The fact that he is a homegrown talent who has supported United since a young age only adds to the sense of excitement. So, if Mainoo were to depart the club, fans would undoubtedly start to grow more disillusioned with what’s happening at the club. It feels like a ticking time bomb, and until he starts getting more minutes on the pitch, coupled with the fact that results and performances have hardly been inspirational recently, fan sentiment will soon start to turn, right?
Mainoo’s biggest problem is that, according to Amorim, he’s in direct competition for a starting berth with club captain Bruno Fernandes – United’s talisman, who has missed just eight games through injury/suspension since joining the club in January 2020. It’s also worth bearing in mind that Fernandes is playing in a deeper position compared to what he has excelled in throughout his career, so Amorim is clearly eager to fit him into his starting XI, so the logical move for Mainoo would be to seek a loan for the remainder of the season. It’s unlikely United would sanction such a deal, which is only going to lead to frustration growing further over the remaining months of the season.
Where should United finish this season?
United currently sit in 6th place in the Premier League, a position which most United fans, including me, would have been happy with at the start of the season. At a quick glance, United are probably performing around par for the season so far. But, with there being only five points between Chelsea in 5th and Brighton in 14th, the table is slightly deceiving. There is a fair argument that United’s performances this season are not befitting of the sixth-best team in the league, and the expectation is that clubs such as Chelsea, Liverpool, and Newcastle will find greater consistency over the second half of the campaign. I would also expect both Brighton and Bournemouth to improve, even though Bournemouth are set to lose Antoine Semenyo during the winter transfer window, on top of losing four of their back five during the last summer window. Andoni Iraola is also a hugely talented coach who will likely move on to a ‘bigger’ club when his contract expires this summer, but I would still expect some improvement before the season finishes, and for Bournemouth to stabilise and finish in the top 10.
It’s still worth noting that United still won’t have European football to contend with in the second half of the campaign, which should continue to be a major advantage in the run-in, particularly given clubs such as Aston Villa and Newcastle don’t exactly have the deepest squads. As far down as Newcastle in 13th place, there are still 8 of those teams likely to be playing knockout matches in Europe during the second half of the season, so this advantage should still be in play until the end of February, at least. Fernandes, given his tendency to play every minute of every single match in a season, will likely be back playing within a fortnight, and the trio of Bryan Mbeumo, Amad Diallo and Noussair Mazraoui should gradually return, and ideally all be back by the time United face Arsenal on the 25th of January.
The feeling among fans can fluctuate depending on what day you ask this question, but what is a satisfactory position for this team to finish? Qualifying for the Champions League would undeniably be a success, and an unexpected one with that, though some fans might look at the points I’ve made above with other clubs competing in Europe, and the general inconsistencies with rival clubs, and argue a top-five place is attainable. Of course, on paper, it is attainable, but with the quality of this squad? No. A top 6/7 place should be the realistic aim between now and the end of the season. Really, it’s performances which we still need to see consistently, which I’ll come on to shortly.
What formation will Amorim settle on between now and the end of the season?
We’re fourteen months into Amorim’s tenure, and despite the insistence that the Pope could not even convince him to deviate from his 3-4-3 system, we have duly witnessed a formation change. After thirteen months, we had all become fairly accustomed to Amorim’s preferred formation, querying whether it would even make any sense at this point to alter his ideas, even in the face of a growing list of absentees, since it could be perceived as weak to make changes now. Although if you actually listen to what Amorim said at the time, when referencing the Vatican City’s most prominent resident, was that he would only make a change when he felt the time was right. So, he made it pretty clear at the time that he is willing to change, on his own terms, which is basically the same as what pretty much any other manager would tell you. Not too long ago, I’m pretty sure Pep Guardiola would have scoffed at the idea of having a 6-foot-5-inch goalkeeper launch long balls to his equally imperious, 6-foot-5-inch centre-forward, but here we are. Sometimes, managers will say things they don’t really mean, or change their minds, and it sometimes really is that simple.
If Amorim continues to persist with a back four for the remainder of the season, then that would invite some slightly more awkward questions, considering the signings of two dual number 10s in Matheus Cunha and Mbeumo, as well as Patrick Dorgu to play at wing back. At the same time, Cunha has regularly played as the sole number 10 for the majority of his career, while Mbuemo predominantly features as a right-sided attacker for Thomas Frank’s Brentford. Dorgu was also accustomed to playing on the right wing prior to his signing from Lecce 12 months ago, so you could make a reasonable argument the club has done its due diligence with the signings since Amorim took charge.
The club won’t be in a position where they’ve signed players who can only play in a five-at-the-back system and are actually more adaptable than we all might have thought. Admittedly, I considered Dorgu to be a player who was only capable of playing at left wing-back when he joined the club, despite the fact that he actually started his first match at right wing-back. Whether Dorgu, and indeed the other signings made under Amorim so far, are of the requisite quality is another question entirely, and a perfectly fair one. I thought the signings of both Cunha and Mbeumo made a great deal of sense when they were confirmed, as it struck me as important to sign ready-made, Premier League-proven players, who wouldn’t require the same adjustment period as someone else (see Florian Wirtz as an example).
The aforementioned awkward questions could still be directed to Amorim if he consistently utilises a back four going forward, though that already looks unlikely, given he immediately, and rather puzzlingly, reverted to his back five for Tuesday’s draw with Wolves. It seemed obvious, given the absentees, given Dorgu’s rather unexpected positive performance in the 1-0 win against Newcastle on Boxing Day as a right-sided attacker, that it would be worth persevering with the same system against a team that had picked up just 2 points from a possible 54. Yes, the performance against Newcastle wasn’t great, and United were indebted to a combination of poor finishing from Newcastle’s attack, as well as some smart work by Senne Lammens, but, you know, if it ain’t broke and all that.
Are we seeing enough consistency in performances from this team?
In short, the answer to this question is no, we are not. The recent home performances against the likes of Everton, West Ham, Newcastle and Wolves, while acknowledging there were mitigating factors in some cases, such as the number of absentees against Newcastle and Wolves, have been hugely disappointing and have lacked any real imagination. The 4-4 at home against Bournemouth was a bit more of a freak result, given United should have been out of sight before Iraola’s side came back into it.
At times, United have really sparkled, mostly from an attacking sense. Cunha and Mbeumo, while not spectacular by any means, have come in and performed to a high level, but more importantly for now, have fit into the system quite seamlessly, and understand the different traits and timings required in this system; when to press, who to press, when to sit in and eventually spring pressing traps. Mason Mount and Benjamin Sesko, when fit, have performed well from this perspective. Whether Sesko is ultimately the striker United need, and whether he is going to score you 20+ goals a season, remains to be seen, but he appears to understand how the system works. Mount is a manager’s dream in terms of fitting into the system, but, like United’s other forward options, lacks that guile or finesse in front of goal to ever be considered reliable enough to consistently score the goals. I’m aware United’s problem this season hasn’t been down to scoring goals, but if they are to tighten up defensively, the likelihood is that it will take something away from the attack.
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United enjoy playing against sides that play on the front foot. Against both Brighton and Bournemouth, where both sides showed a willingness to take the game to United, United were able to create numerous opportunities and should really have scored more than four goals in each match. A similar tactic has been evident in many of United’s teams over the past few seasons, with both Erik Ten Hag and Ole Gunnar Solskjaer’s teams at their best when playing a counter-attacking game. When United have faced the likes of Everton and West Ham, teams we all knew were going to sit back and look to soak up pressure before launching counter-attacks, United have fallen short. Also, when Amorim has looked to change games in United’s favour, his substitutions have often made the team worse. The decision to substitute Joshua Zirkzee for Jack Fletcher at half-time during the 1-1 draw with Wolves was a curious decision, to put it mildly. Yes, Zirkzee had been particularly poor only a few days earlier when he was brought on against Newcastle, but having scored the opener against Wolves, albeit a heavily deflected opener, you would still expect his confidence to be high after such a moment.
Amorim’s in-game management needs to drastically improve. Something that crosses my mind when he makes in-game tweaks is that if there’s one thing that particularly irks supporters, it’s a manager who gives the impression that he is the smartest guy in the room, that he can see something nobody else can, and will make the unconventional change just to prove he really is the smartest guy in the room. Sometimes, the obvious change is the right one. Dorgu played well on the right wing against Newcastle, which was, in fact, a surprise to me, so why remove him from this position, particularly given his confidence would have been high after such a well-executed goal? The smart, tactical decision was already made when you started Dorgu on the right, and he repaid your faith with an impressive performance, so why not just do the same thing again?
With an in-form Leeds at Elland Road the next assignment for this team, Amorim needs to start getting more of his tactical decisions right. Leeds will obviously be fired up in what will be an incredibly hostile atmosphere. This is often the sort of game where United surprise us all and find a win from somewhere, so let’s hope for another surprise on Sunday.
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