Solid-state future state

There are a dizzying array of internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicles on offer in the market today. For any consumer that simply wants to get from A to B, choosing a new one can be exhausting. From aesthetics to functionality to performance, the options available are endless. It’s a testament to the decades upon decades of hard work and optimization that have culminated in the global automotive industry we see today.

Despite the ubiquity and versatility of ICE vehicles, 12 US states and the European Union have banned their sale starting in 2035. For a litany of reasons, the likelihood of success of such edicts is dubious at best. To cite one example, consider the oft ignored but undeniable reality that the energy density of gasoline is currently ~15x greater than li-on batteries, even after accounting for the higher efficiency of electric powertrains.

You shouldn’t be labeled as anti-progress just because you disagree with a mandated EV transition, especially one over such a short timeframe.

But just because you oppose EV mandates, doesn’t mean you loathe EVs. Au contraire, it’s possible to chew gum and walk at the same time. One can loathe EV mandates and love EVs.

The divisiveness of the mandates often prevents thoughtful conversations about the future potential of EVs from occurring. EVs are here to stay. They’re getting better. But how far will they go? Let’s set aside our political shoes for a hot second and walk barefoot down the yellow brick road to the realistic, yet exciting EV future.

To guide our journey, I’ll use a simple 5 question framework:

1. Where is battery technology today?

2. How much can current battery chemistry improve?

3. What new battery chemistry is the automotive industry heading toward?

4. How will battery performance improve with new battery chemistry?

5. How long will it take to scale-up new battery chemistry?

**Side-note: If any of my assumptions seem wildly off, please let me know. Additionally, you could write a PhD dissertation on any of these questions. Feel free to leave a comment if you’d like a more detailed explanation on a particular item.**

Before predicting the future, it’s helpful to understand where we are today.

Today, the EV world is dominated by Li-ion batteries with the following chemistry:

• Graphite or silicon-enhanced graphite anodes

• Nickel manganese cobalt oxide (NMC), nickel cobalt aluminum oxide (NCA), or lithium iron phosphate (LFP) cathodes

• Liquid electrolytes

The need for different cathode chemistries demonstrates the difficulty of balancing competing factors such as energy density, cost, safety, and performance. There isn’t a perfect battery. At the same time, consolidation around a few core solutions allows the EV industry to reap the benefits of scale.

As far as fueling goes, the best way to improve the gas station experience is to get rid of the gas station experience. One of the biggest perks of driving an EV is being able to refuel at home. However, fast charging time is still an important consideration for many consumers that cannot rely on slow charging for some or all of their fueling.

Because the battery charges particularly slow at the beginning and end of the session, industry standard is measuring charge time between 10 and 80% state of charge. Right now, the time to accomplish this feat is 25-30 minutes.

A good summary of the current state of affairs is the Tesla Model 3 long range which gets about 300 miles of range, costs $40-50k, and refuels 210 miles in 25-30 minutes.

For context, a Toyota Camry gets 610 miles of range, costs $25-35k, and refuels completely in less than 2 minutes.

Li-ion battery performance and cost have improved significantly over the past three decades. This trend will continue, but not on the same trajectory as we are nearing the limits that the existing chemistry will allow.

Raw material cost alone accounts for the majority of battery cost, so we’re running out of space to optimize. To make things even more challenging, EV mandates that outpace the mining sector’s ability to increase supply risks putting inflationary pressure on raw materials.

When it comes to energy density, there’s room for a ~10-20% improvement.

For these reasons, significant blood and treasure is being shed to commercialize more advanced battery technology.

Researchers, battery companies, and automotive OEMs are moving toward solid-state batteries. Unlike current li-ion chemistry, these batteries have a lithium metal anode and a solid electrolyte.

Lithium is the lightest metal and has the highest electrochemical potential, which allows it to store more energy per unit weight compared to conventional graphite anodes. This makes lithium metal anodes particularly attractive for next-generation battery technologies, where they can offer substantial improvements in energy density. For safety, performance, and longevity reasons, researchers have shifted from a liquid to a solid or semi-solid electrolyte.

The consensus around this new chemistry seems unanimous, given the efforts of major automakers such as VW and Toyota. The move toward lithium-anode, solid-state batteries indicates the technology’s fundamental potential, as well as the industry’s confidence in its scalability. However, there will likely still be the same three cathode chemistries mentioned above (NMC, LFP, and NCA).

The first round of new solid-state battery chemistry promises to come in with an energy density about 30% higher than what’s best on the market today. The practical limit is thought to be around 50% higher, owing largely to lower balance-of-system costs for thermal management compared to existing tech.

As with any new technology, the cost of solid-state batteries is projected to be substantially higher than battle-tested and already-scaled technology. In the long-term, cost is not expected to be substantially cheaper given the immovability of raw material and manufacturing costs.

However, industry standard in the auto sector is that every 1 lb of weight saved translates to $3-5 in upfront cost savings. If you make the battery more energy dense, you can save vehicle weight and therefore vehicle cost.

Lastly, the goal that the US Department of Energy and solid-state battery developers are working toward is charging from 10 to 80% in 10-15 minutes.

With these improvement in tow, the aforementioned Tesla Model 3 long range would get about 450 miles of range, cost $35-45k, and refuel 315 miles in 10-15 minutes.

Just to reiterate — a Toyota Camry gets 610 miles of range, costs $25-35k, and refuels completely in less than 2 minutes.

Scaling up lab battery technology to automotive scale is notoriously difficult. In the lab, controlled conditions allow for precise experimentation and optimization of battery performance, but translating these results to large-scale production involves complexities such as ensuring consistent quality, managing cost-effective manufacturing, and maintaining safety standards. Companies and scientists frequently overpromise and underdeliver because initial breakthroughs can appear promising under controlled conditions, but replicating those results in mass production while meeting the stringent reliability and safety standards of the automotive industry proves to be a far more challenging endeavor.

The first Tesla Roadster was introduced in 2008 and the first Model S in 2012. This gives you a rough sense of how long it takes to go from initial commercialization to true scale.

Given the challenges associated with scaling, solid-state battery developers are trying their best to integrate into existing li-ion manufacturing processes. However, a decade between the launch of premium prototypes to more mass-market products is still aggressive.

That puts the timeline for premium solid-state battery EVs in 2027-2029 and more mass-market options somewhere in the late 2030s.

Call me crazy, but I’m excited by where the yellow brick road led us. Improving battery technology helps not only battery electric vehicles, but plug-in hybrid electric and hybrid vehicles as well. Consumers will have even more choice than they have today. Many smart people will dedicate their lives to turn these predictions into reality and they should be proud of their work.

However, given the reality ahead, 100% EV mandates are destined to fail. EVs cannot fully replace the attributes of ICE vehicles. Setting aside degrowth motivations, it’s hard to tell whether mandate advocates suffer from cognitive dissonance, think impossible targets are a good thing, or simply haven’t taken the time to truly think things through.

The situation we’re in is akin to being upset that you didn’t set a world record during your first marathon. If you have wildly unrealistic expectations, you’ll lose sight of how much progress you’ve made.

The future of EVs is exciting, especially when you’re realistic about what’s possible.

Thanks for reading!