From Taylor Swift's wedding to England's 27% chance of the semis: the column that has it all

Can you predict where Taylor Swift’s wedding will take place?

Can you predict when the Strait of Hormuz will reopen?

Can you predict what will be the No1 Netflix show next week?

These - alongside the outcome of World Cup matches - were some of the markets available on prediction market Kalshi last weekend.

Prediction markets are everywhere at the World Cup. Mexican goalkeeper Guillermo Ochoa and American legend Clint Dempsey promote Kalshi with the slogan ‘Trade the beautiful game’ on giant billboards in the vicinity of Times Square, where, in the subway, Polymarket, another major prediction market platform, urges sports lovers and passersby to gamble.

Influencer Thogden - real name Theo Thogden - steers his 2.62m YouTube followers repeatedly to Polymarket.

It goes beyond Thogden. Last month, global star actor Timothée Chamale and Kalshi launched a somewhat surreal multi-spot ad campaign, directed by La La Land cinematographer Linus Sandgren, where Chalamet intensely dramatises everyday activities like going to the dentist, testing synthesisers, and practicing high jumps.

You see Hollywood’s poster boy in a dentist chair, tortured by a dental dam covering his mouth, from behind which he mutters repeatedly, as if a craving, ‘Kalshi’. The idea, like with any marketing, is simple: appeal to the future customers through his star power and global following.

Representatives for both Chamalet and Thogden failed to reply to questions over remuneration. The rest of this investigative piece, which also delves into England’s chances, based on historical performances, of reaching the semis, is for paying subscribers without whom this site would not be viable.