What's on the Horizon for South Durham NC Gasoline Prices?

The highest gas price I’ve seen in South Durham today is $3.89 a gallon (check our SoDu Fuel Tracker), and that number makes more sense once you zoom out from Durham and look at the global oil market.

Over the past month, U.S. pump prices have surged as the war involving Iran disrupted oil flows and sent crude prices sharply higher. Reuters reported that the national average was heading toward $4 a gallon last week, after gas prices jumped more than 30% since the conflict began in late February.

Now comes the next question for drivers here at home. What happens in the coming days if President Donald Trump really is trying to de-escalate?

On Monday, oil prices fell hard after Trump said he would postpone planned strikes on Iranian energy infrastructure for five days following what he called productive conversations. Reuters reported that Brent crude fell more than 13%, briefly dropping to about $96 a barrel, while AP reported that Trump extended his deadline for Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz by five days.

That matters, because crude oil moves first, and gas stations move later. In practical terms, that means South Durham drivers should not expect an instant drop at the pump just because oil sold off today. Retail gas prices usually lag behind crude, since stations are still selling fuel bought at earlier, higher wholesale prices. Reuters and other market coverage today both pointed to that lag, noting that gasoline remains elevated even after oil backed off.

So the most likely near-term scenario looks something like this: prices in South Durham may keep feeling high for a few more days, and some stations could still tick upward before things level off. That’s because the earlier crude spike is still working its way through the system. The national average has continued to climb even after signs of diplomatic cooling, and analysts cited by Barron’s and Reuters have warned that the country was already on the doorstep of $4 gasoline before Monday’s drop in oil.

But if the five-day pause holds, and if it leads to a real easing of tensions around the Strait of Hormuz, there is a reasonable case that pump prices could flatten, and then start to edge lower later this week or early next week. That is the hopeful reading of Monday’s market move. Reuters reported that traders reacted immediately to the reduced odds of fresh attacks on Iranian energy sites, and MarketWatch said analysts saw room for Brent to move closer to $90 a barrel if de-escalation continues.

The catch is that this is still a fragile situation. Iran has denied that talks are taking place, according to AP and Reuters, and Reuters also reported that Goldman Sachs raised its 2026 oil forecast because markets still expect supply risks and an extended disruption in the region. In other words, the market is calmer than it was this morning, but not calm.

That’s why the best way to frame it for South Durham is probably this: the worst of the immediate panic may have eased, but the pump hasn’t caught up yet. If diplomacy holds for five days, drivers may start to see prices stop climbing so fast, and perhaps slip lower after that. If talks collapse, or if the U.S. or Iran returns to threatening energy infrastructure, this latest dip in oil could disappear fast, and local gas prices could resume climbing. Reuters said Monday’s sell-off was driven specifically by the decision to delay strikes, which means the market could reverse just as quickly if that delay ends without a broader breakthrough.

There’s also a seasonal wrinkle. Even without war, spring often puts upward pressure on gasoline because refiners switch to summer-blend fuel and demand starts rising. So even in the better case, a dramatic overnight drop at South Durham stations is unlikely. The more realistic expectation is a pause, then a slow comedown, assuming the geopolitical picture improves.

For South Durham, that means $3.89 could turn out to be close to a short-term peak, but nobody should mistake that for an all-clear. What happens over the next five days matters. If Trump’s pause turns into real de-escalation, local drivers may finally get a little relief. If not, the higher prices we are seeing now may only be an intermission.

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