6 Energy Themes for 2026

The first few weeks of 2026 have already started off with a lot of activity in energy markets. As we look ahead to the rest of the year and much of the world descends on snowy Davos, I’m sharing today the six themes that we see in energy technology for 2026.

1 - Energy will continue the transition from carbon and climate to cost and security

It’s increasingly clear that the old world order is dead, and countries around the world seek to rewrite the established international order. What’s unclear is exactly what will come next. At the center of this is intensifying competition for energy, critical minerals and supremacy in AI. We’re seeing a return to mercantilism, a growth of conflicts and ever-present global uncertainty. Amid this backdrop, we predict that in 2026 energy markets will continue to shift from a world where carbon and climate reign, to a world where energy costs and security are paramount. Continued competition for molecules, electrons and critical minerals, electricity cost pressure from AI and consumers, and escalating national security concerns will continue to drive this shift. In the US, this will be intensified by the year’s midterm elections. We expect that “plug prices” will be at the center of the midterms’ campaign rhetoric, replacing the “pump prices” rhetoric of elections past. The US media will amplify the issue of electricity prices for the general public, putting increasing visibility on this issue – and demand for solutions. We expect that this landscape, punctuated by global conflicts and highly-visible electricity cost pressures, will continue the market shift away from carbon and climate to costs and security.

As a transatlantic energy tech investment and advisory firm, we are often asked for our first-hand views on energy policy in the US (from Europeans) and in Europe (from Americans). We continue to believe that both markets face these similar dynamics and will increasingly focus on energy costs and security. But we expect that each market will tackle it differently, given the differences in resource availability. In Europe, we expect to continue to see accelerating innovation and investment in renewable energy generation and storage capacity, increasingly leveraging AI-enabled software to enhance reliability and shift the cost curve downward. In a world where energy sovereignty and security reign, and geopolitical conflict and policy uncertainty abound, imported hydrocarbons are increasingly risky and costly. We believe that these dynamics will continue to drive European investment opportunities in non-hydrocarbon energy and power solutions. Innovation will increasingly be at the core of this.

In the US, where there are both a lot of hydrocarbon molecules and hyperscalers investing aggressively in power-hungry AI-data centers, we expect to see continued acceleration of the oil and gas value chain. Within this context, we expect that there will be technology innovations across mining, exploration, production, pipelines, power generation and grids.

In both markets, we predict continued acceleration of nuclear energy as the clean baseload power solution that ticks all boxes, with an accelerating appetite for advanced small modular reactors (SMRs) from countries and customers hungry for more flexible, affordable and reliable behind-the-meter power and heat generation.

At a policy level, in 2025 we certainly saw a more aggressive and rapid shift in the US (and Canada) from carbon and climate to cost and security than in Europe. However, we predict that Europe will increasingly move in this direction in 2026, as cost pressures, AI and industrial competition, geopolitical dynamics and an increasing groundswell of alternative voices combine to make this increasingly non-negotiable.

At a thematic investment level, we believe that there will be increasingly compelling investment opportunities in both the US and Europe in energy solutions and their value chains that can help increase electricity supply, reduce costs or increase security and sovereignty. This naturally leads us to be excited about behind-the-meter onsite power generation (of all types) that can generate more electrons locally for power-hungry customers, critical minerals innovations, and the potential for AI-enabled software to bring efficiency, cost and security benefits to energy, power and mining assets.

At a portfolio level, we believe that the best hedge for uncertainty is diversification. As such, we increasingly believe in a diverse investment and advisory strategy across energy types, sectors and geographies to provide the most robust risk-weighted upside amid this unprecedented macro environment.

2 - The power supercycle will accelerate driven by increasing competition for electrons

It’s clear that we have entered a global power supercycle, where those who control electrons will increasingly gain technological, economic and geopolitical advantage. This supercycle is undoubtedly fueled by the rapid ascent of AI and hyperscalers’ massive investments in power-hungry data centers, however it is also fueled by increasingly power-hungry consumers throughout the world (including 100 million people per year entering the middle class) and the global electrification of industry. Even if all the pundits are wrong about the AI and data center growth curve, we still have a power supercycle and massive demand for new electrons.

These demand drivers are fueling large and immediate global competition for electrons, increasing grid prices, and new innovations. It’s now clear that those who have access to the cheapest power will have a technological, industrial and economic advantage, as industries as diverse as AI data centers, steel, pharmaceuticals and bitcoin among many others migrate to locations with the lowest energy costs.

We believe that this macro picture will increasingly drive global advantage from energy innovations - those who can create and export solutions that generate new electrons for customers will grow rapidly and become outsized winners. We believe that electrons will increasingly become a new “belt and road” initiative of global powers. As investors, we’ll increasingly look for power-generation solutions that gain traction in one market, but that have global applicability and ambition. We think that there is a particularly large opportunity for scalable and modular onsite power generation innovations in the US and Europe to help meet the needs of the 100 million people per year in the global south entering the middle class, where power demand is rapidly escalating and grids are often under-developed and volatile. In a world where “spheres of influence” are a re-emerging dialogue, Europe may have a particular opportunity to export solutions to Africa and the Middle East, and the US may have a particular advantage across the Americas. Our investment in US energy company Caban Energy, which provides power generation systems for network infrastructure for much of Latin America and the Caribbean (in addition to the US) is an example of this.

Given the scale of the power demand curve, in 2026 we’re also continuing to forecast an “all of the above” energy strategy, with strong investment opportunities across the value chain and across energy types. As existing infrastructure fails to keep up with this scale of electron demand, we predict that this power supercycle will bring an acceleration of behind-the-meter power generation and AI-enabled software to do more with existing assets. We discuss these forecasts, and the investment opportunities we see, in more detail below.

3 - “All of the above” energy strategies will increasingly dominate policy and markets

In 2026, we predict an acceleration of “all of the above” energy strategies across markets amid the geopolitical competition and demand pressures, discussed above. Quite simply, the world needs a lot more power. Quickly. There is no rational way to meet this demand, without massive price and volatility spikes in the near term, without all of it. At Smart Society Capital, we believe that at a macro level there will be increasing global adoption of nuclear, renewables and other clean energy over time, with renewable adoption likely faster in Europe and China than other countries. But we also believe that the growth of AI and the immediacy of the power demand curve will continue to drive “an all of the above” energy strategy for the foreseeable future. We believe that there will be different adoption curves across countries and industries - and therefore the opportunity for diversified and strong investment opportunities across energy types, innovations and regions.

Within this “all of the above” energy strategy, we predict particularly strong 2026 investment opportunities in the natural gas, nuclear, and renewable and storage value chains.

4 - Demand for behind-the-meter, onsite energy will grow while infrastructure catches up

In 2026, we predict the continued acceleration of behind-the-meter onsite energy to meet the power demand curve. Existing grids cannot support rapidly growing power generation and distribution, and permitting and regulatory challenges means solving this requires longer timeframes. In the past week, we saw President Trump start to weigh into this dialogue saying that hyperscalers and data centers would have to “pay their way” for power and create their own power, to mitigate price and supply bottlenecks for consumer households. While we are not 100% clear what this means in practice, we believe this thematic is indicative of what will be an accelerating shift for large power consumers (data centers and industrials) from grid-connected power to behind-the-meter power solutions. As larger power consumers make this shift, we expect that other parts of the economy will follow as they seek to ensure reliability, affordability and local control. In short, we believe we’re increasingly moving to a world of local power generation.

From an investment perspective, we are bullish on this theme for 2026. We believe there will be compelling opportunities with strong investor and customer upside across nuclear SMRs, fuel cells, renewables and emerging behind-the-meter electricity generation innovations. We particularly like this space because it is not reliant on navigating long-grid interconnects or government permitting, and has the potential to solve a key customer pain point directly and immediately. A key question for us in sales is always “why does the customer buy this solution now?” If a company cannot answer this question very clearly, they are not going to scale quickly enough to generate outsized investor returns. The most cost competitive and reliable onsite energy innovations will be able to answer this question very well and scale customers quickly.

5 - Critical minerals mercantilism will increasingly play out across the globe

In the 19th century, the world’s superpowers were locked in a competition for spices and trade routes. It’s clear that the world is now locked into a competition for critical minerals and energy. Buoyed by pressure from power, AI and defense, in critical minerals and metals mining and mercantilism now reign. From Greenland to Venezuela, Chile, China and Kazakhstan, it’s now clear that access to and control of minerals and metals will be a defining feature of our current geopolitical age. Access to hydrocarbons remains a key part of this puzzle, however the diversity of energy generation options (as above) creates viable alternatives that do not yet exist in critical minerals. Until we have viable and widespread alternatives for copper, cobalt, lithium, uranium, nickel and rare earths, access to these resources will increasingly drive geopolitical competition and AI, energy, grids and defense markets.

From an investment perspective, we believe that there will be opportunities to invest in technologies that bring efficiencies to the exploration and production of critical minerals, and in other innovations that advance optionality across the critical minerals value chain. At a macro level, we are particularly bullish on the copper market given its criticality for data centers, grids and AI, as the backbone for power delivery, high-speed data transfer and cooling.

6 - AI will increasingly optimize the energy, mining and industrial value chain

In 2025, we heard a lot about AI driving electricity demand, but we heard less about how AI can help meet this demand. One of the lesser-talked about aspects of the power supercycle is the significant opportunity for AI to help us “do more with less” across energy, power and critical minerals markets. We believe that there is significant potential for AI to bring radical efficiencies to the physical world, from exploration and production, to supply and demand, to distribution and transmission, to fault and threat detection. The energy, power and critical minerals markets operate with massive data sets. When integrated with today’s leading AI capabilities and learning models, these data sets can be leveraged to bring outsized business and customer value. In a world where the competition for resources, electrons and grid capacity is fierce, costs are high and volatile, and complexity is ever-present, AI has the potential to help make things work radically better.

From an investment perspective, we believe that there will be increasing opportunities in physical AI across energy, power and critical minerals assets in 2026. Many of the companies we see in this space are growing in traction and technology sophistication. We predict that 2026 will be the year where certain companies are ready for widespread adoption and breakout growth.

Onward,

Brynne

Managing Partner, Smart Society Ventures

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