commentary and analysis of conflict
From what I understand, this is the current state of demands made by the US and Iran, even though there do not appear to be formal negotiations about them: Notably absent is regime change, which is important for several reasons. It is now abundantly clear that Trump launched this war because he was told by … Continue reading The U.S.-Iran War at an Impasse →
Reflections on the Alaska and Washington Summits The first months of Trump’s return to office have been dominated by one question: what will he do about Ukraine? Supporters insist he alone can bring peace, critics fear he will abandon Kyiv and reward Putin, and Moscow has worked hard to cultivate the image of Trump as … Continue reading The Education of Donald J. Trump →
June 23, 2024 (In this installment, I cover the crucial period from 1989 to the 1999 NATO enlargement. The subsequent developments will be dealt with in a follow-up essay.) In recent days, both President Trump and UK’s Reform leader Nigel Farage have repeated the claim that the Russian invasion of Ukraine was provoked by NATO’s … Continue reading The False Narrative of “Broken Promises” To Not…
May 28, 2024 A week or so ago, Aleksandar Djokic sent me some questions about transition to a war economy for an article he was writing (you can read it here). I wrote a reply that was way too long to make it in any reasonable form, so I decided to replicate it here. When … Continue reading War Economy: What is it, and why we will not transition to it? →
March 31, 2024 I know it’s been a long time since I have written updates for this blog. I’ve been quite busy with work and trying to reach other outlets to encourage support for Ukraine. Finally, Hein Goemans and I managed to get a piece in Foreign Affairs that can hopefully counter some of the … Continue reading Hein and I wrote a piece for Foreign Affairs on why Russia is the obstacle to peace →
September 1, 2023 Among the several arguments for an immediate ceasefire in Ukraine, the analogy with the Korean War armistice periodically pops up, as it did most recently in the article about Samuel Charap. It was made openly and in a most sustained manner by Carter Malkasian in Foreign Affairs this summer, so I will … Continue reading Some Notes on the “Korean War” Scenario →
August 30, 2023 In the first part of this series, we took a look at developments on the battlefield, and discussed strategies and problems the Ukrainians have encountered. My overall conclusion is that the offensive proved to be costlier, slower, and more difficult than anticipated, but that ZSU adjusted its strategy and is making steady … Continue reading The Ukrainian Offensive, Part 2: The…
August 30, 2023 It has been quite some time since my last comprehensive update here, and my excuse that I have been quite active on FB and Twitter/X with analyses, and got a bit used to the shorter form. Nevertheless, this seems like a good time to take stock of what has been going on … Continue reading The Ukrainian Offensive, part 1: The Military Situation →
July 2, 2023 It has been nearly a month since ZSU’s offensive began, and it’s time for an update, especially since so many things have happened in Ukraine, Russia, and elsewhere. If one were to read Western and Russian media, one would think that ZSU’s offensive is “slower than expected,” that it’s either “disappointing” or … Continue reading The First Month of the Ukrainian Offensive →
June 9, 2023 It appears that the long-awaited Ukrainian offensive — which we can now call the Summer Offensive — began a couple of days ago, with attacks almost along the entre front line. While ZSU have yet to activate their main forces, there have been some notable developments, which we will discuss, bearing in … Continue reading The Ukrainian Offensive Has Begun →