The purpose of this note is to explain some simple math that is very relevant to current events. Every disease has a basic reproduction number, R. It is the average number of secondary infections created by an infectious individual (in an otherwise susceptible population). Early in covid R was 2.5 but it grew to 5 … Continue reading What is herd immunity? →
Post updated March 6 and 7 — see the end. Justice Allison Riggs maintains a 734-vote lead over Republican rival Jefferson Griffin after more than 5.5 million ballots were cast and two recounts. Griffin is seeking to have 65,000 ballots thrown out. Today I will answer a question no one has asked: What is the … Continue reading Griffin vs. Riggs: what are the odds the result will change if 65,000…
This was written Sunday October 27, 2024 and will not be revised. The president is not elected by popular vote. I remember watching Headline News on CNN a few days before the 2012 election and hearing that the election between Obama and Romney was a statistical dead heat. Each candidate was predicted to have 47% … Continue reading Presidential Polls are Flawed →
This blog post is based on the previous one The Arithmetic of Presidential Elections. There we used data from the last three presidential elections to argue that there are Red States with 170 electoral vote, Blue States with 215, and Swing States listed below with 153. Turning to https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/ for data, we see that Biden … Continue reading Trump…
In November of 2012, I remember watching Robin Meade on Headline News saying that the race between Obama and Romney was a statistical dead heat. Both were projected to get 47% of the popular vote. Meanwhile a guy named Nate Silver on his web site 538.com was predicting based on state-by-state data that Obama would … Continue reading The Arithmetic of Presidential Elections →
Given that sports betting has come to North Carolina I am going to revisit the topic and derive some general formulas. The take home message is that while you might think you could make money betting against people who know less than you do. It is just like going to a casino. The typical moneyline … Continue reading Moneyline Wagering II →
As I write this, he passed away about a week ago. While the end of a person’s life is a sad time, it also provides an opportunity to reflect on the past. The first memory that came to my mind was of sitting in Sid Resnick’s office in the Stanford Statistics department in 1974 … Continue reading Remembering Krishna Athreya →
Here’s a little problem to test your skills at combinatorial probability. You have a set of six cups and saucers. Two are NC State red R, two are UNC light blue b, and two are Duke dark blue B. You place the saucers in a line on the table RRbbBB. Then a blind man comes … Continue reading The Tea-Cup Problem →
This the first of a series of posts in the Category: Cooking: QED, which stands for quick, easy and delicious. The last word may be a bit of a stretch but dumb or dull does not seem to set the right tone. The recipeI am about to share has a long history with my family. … Continue reading A simple recipe for Chole →
NBC coverage begins today at 2:30PM with the race slated for 6:57PM. Last year Medina Spirit made 1.86 million dollars for a two minute race, eclipsing what Stormy Daniels was paid for what was presumably a somewhat longer ride on Donald Trump.. The win was negated by the drug test Medina Spirit failed after the derby. … Continue reading Fear, Loathing, and Surprise at the Kentucky Derby →