Issue#34 Moving from US to Canada is a lot more complex now

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Express entry has been the life jacket for immigrants in the US who suddenly found themselves on shaky ground. It promised a straightforward, quick escape to a very comparable, sometimes even better life.

And many, like me, took Canada up on that offer.

Students failing to transition to H-1B. Workers getting laid off.
Me? I was just tired of it all - the uncertainty, the immigration stress…all of it.
I’ve met now so many people who made this move, I have a term for us - US dropouts.

Uprooting yourself a second time, is not easy. Disruptive life and starting from scratch all over again is daunting. But pre-2020, moving to Canada in this way had one clear advantage - it was a trade of uncertainty for certainty. Once you decided you were ready to make the tradeoffs that came with it, you swallowed the temporary discomfort and just did it.

This was always a deeply personal decision. But it is also a lot more complex now.

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I know I’m jumping a little ahead, but this needs to be said clearly - The days of direct PR from abroad are long behind us in Canada. For the vast majority of aspirants, PR directly from abroad is simply NOT feasible.

Immigrants in Canada have known this for some years now. This is not my opinion. It is plain-as-day reality.

Of course, anyone who wants to move to the Great White North should definitely check if they are eligible for PR. It’s the obvious thing to do. It’s just that you’re VERY likely not going to have a high enough score.

You can do this check very quickly:

1. Run your profile through the CRS score calculator and get a score (or a range)

This is essentially a questionnaire. It asks you about your education and work experience (both Canadian and foreign), language proficiency (English and French), age, relationship status, family connections etc.

Make sure you read the details for each question.

You don’t want inflated score estimates, only yo realize later that they were unrealistic. For example, you may have work experience that can’t be claimed towards Express Entry. You may also have foreign education that cannot be accredited through ECA evaluation, because you cannot provide the documents in the expected manner.

Run a few different scenarios and use hypothetical test scores if you don’t have language scores. Make sure you have both optimistic and slightly pessimistic estimates for CRS score scenarios.

2. Check your score against relevant draws in the past 2-3 months [1]

   Special emphasis on relevant draws. If you are not a French speaker or a healthcare worker, those draws and their lower scores do not apply to you.

Ok, so you’ve checked your score and let’s say you’re not eligible for PR. This doesn’t mean Canada is simply not an option for you. It just means it may not be an option in the way that you may have thought.

Let’s now talk about what the decision to move from US to Canada may look like for you, why it has changed and how to position yourself for success.

If the entire lens with which you were looking at Canada from abroad was PR, this needs to change. And fast. Unless the gap is really small, don’t waste time waiting for scores to fall or re-taking the IELTS.

The longer you waste in this wishful space, the farther away you are getting from real action towards resolving your immigration issues.

In the likely scenario that PR is not a possibility for you directly from the US, you are not making the sort of uncertainty-for-certainty trade that many before you that moved from US to Canada on PR are making.

This is a fundamentally different decision for every person.

Aarushi may came to Canada after working in the US on H-1B, worked for a few years from Canada on a work permit for her US employer and then return on EB1-C or working towards EB1-A or B.

She is exchanging uncertainty for stability.

Rahul may dislike the stress of layoffs and the Trump admin’s policies towards H-1B and want to work in Canada to give it a try.

In this case, he is exchanging a more immediate, intense sort of uncertainty for a potential shot at stability, even if that’s not guaranteed.

What kind of decision are you facing?

• Do you have a meaningful shot at a more stable visa situation in the US? L-1? O-1? EB-1? Maybe working in Canada for a while, is part of this equation. Maybe you like the idea of exploring options in both countries?

• Are you moving to Canada with a clear goal to work towards qualifying for a PR program that you have already identified?

• Do you want to still give working in Canada a shot and try for PR, knowing this may not happen? Is this is something you still want to try out to stay in North America?

If you do decide to move on a study/ work permit, there are a few things to know.

1. Canadian work experience does improve your odds of PR than when you are abroad. But getting PR, even from within Canada is not at all easy right now.

2. Life on a study/ work permit in Canada is not the same as those statuses in the US. There are different rules and facilities. So the knee-jerk reaction of “why would I move just to again be on a work permit?” is not a thoughtful way of approaching this issue.

Being clear both in the terms of any permits you are considering AND your expectations of PR is super important.

There’s a looooong line for PR in Canada.

A few numbers are needed to get some context.

901,800 - That’s the pile of pending PR applications at the Canadian immigration agency (IRCC) as of August 31, 2025.

3,024,216 - That’s the number of temporary foreign residents in Canada as of Q3 2025, many of whom will want to transition to PR, whether or not they qualify is a different matter.

For context, the government’s PR target for 2025 is 395,000 - and let’s keep in mind, that includes all PRs - ones that are family-sponsored, spots reserved for Quebec and refugees & humanitarian classes.

Short version: There are 10 times as many temporary foreign residents as there are PR spots in 2025.

Not to be overly pessimistic, the targets are set to further lower in 2026 and 2027 at the time of writing this issue, there are limited hopes that this may change. But there is public pressure in Canada, due to housing affordability and healthcare issues to reduce the number of newcomers overall. So changes will likely be modest.

This doesn’t mean that people are not getting PR at all. They obviously are. Canada approved 276,900 new permanent residents from January 1 to August 31, 2025 this year [2]. But it does mean that competition for PR is intense and will remain that way for the next few years.

Express Entry is the rockstar of Canadian immigration, but it is not the only pathway. Immigration is generally complex terrain to navigate and Canadian immigration is no exception. PR in Canada has 2 layers - there are federal and provincial programs.

And since you are likely also looking at work permits, there are various types of work permit programs and types - based on whether or not they are employer specific, based on requirements of labor market impact assessments. Further there are expedited pathways for work permits for certain occupations…

You get the idea… You’re going to need help.

And yes, if you have friends/family in Canada already, its only a matter of time before someone tells you that you don’t need an immigration consultant, because they just did their own application and see, it all worked out!

Well, they’re wrong.

It is true that back in the good ‘ol days people did their Express Entry applications all the way to PR without any legal professional’s guidance. I did that too.

I don’t recommend that today.

Why?

First, immigration changes all the time. Just because something worked for them a certain way, doesn’t mean it is going to be true forever.

What has changed, most notably, is that Canada has gone from wanting lots of immigrants to wanting far fewer immigrants. The gates are not wide open anymore. In the era of wide-open-gates, it makes sense that Canadian immigration was much less strict. So, the tendency to overly scrutinize and find reasons to reject was obviously lower.

Today, it’s the opposite. IRCC is a lot less consistent and a lot more strict. This is not the time for DIY. This is not where you try to save money.

And finally, immigration is uniquely unforgiving. You cannot fix it later. You cannot explain. A lawyer can’t always make it go away.

If you can afford it, you should get legal input. Pure and simple.

Given the somewhat sobering news I’ve given you in this issue, what I’m about to say next may seem counterintuitive. But I’ll say it anyway, because I have seen this play out time and time again.

It is difficult to find immigration stability. You should do it anyway.

The easiest decision in the short term is to stay on the hamster-wheel that is the green-card backlog and the endless H-1B cycle. The stress of any issue that life may throw at us - layoffs, medical issues, workplace toxicity, family emergencies, marital problems - is gravely compounded by immigration.

If a life abroad is something you value, immigration is foundational. Solve it, even at the cost of some temporary pain and disruption.

References:

[1] https://www.cicnews.com/2024/05/breaking-ircc-invites-2985-express-entry-candidates-after-month-long-pause-0544162.html

[2] https://www.canada.ca/en/immigration-refugees-citizenship/corporate/mandate/corporate-initiatives/levels/inventories-backlogs.html