The Marriage Risk Isn’t Real

Divorce rates increased from 3.5 per 1000 people in 1970 to 5.1 per 1000 in 1980. Between 2000 and 2022, the divorce rate fell from 4.0 per 1000 to 2.4 per 1000. In 1980, there were 10.6 marriages per 1000 people compared with 6.2 per thousand in 2022.

First, it’s worth noting that the “50 percent of all marriages end in divorce” was technically true, but never relevant to those contemplating marriage for the first time. In order to get to 50 percent, it was necessary to include second, third, and subsequent marriages, all of which have much higher failure rates than first marriages. The real probability of eventual failure was around 40 percent; still significant but the odds were always in favor of a first marriage surviving, even in 1980.

Which, you may be attentive enough to notice, was 46 years ago.

And while both marital and divorce rates have been falling since 1980, divorce rates have actually been falling faster, 53 percent vs 42 percent. So the overall risk of a 2026 marriage ending in divorce is 38 percent, but an estimated 40 percent of all divorces involve at least one person who has been divorced before. So the actual risk of a first marriage between two first-timers ending in divorce in 2026 is 22.8 percent, which is less than half the number most commonly cited as “the risk of divorce”.

So marriage is still a risk, but it’s a much more solid bet than the hysterical men going their own way into genetic extinction would have you believe.