On May 11, the S&P 500 was at 7,400. The war was dragging on, the Fed was slipping hawkish, and the common view was that the rally had run ahead of reality.
We saw it differently.
Twelve weeks later the index is back at all-time highs, within one percent of our target with five months of runway to spare.
It got there through a collapsed ceasefire, open talk of rate hikes, and the highest long-bond yields since 2007.
Just like last time, the early arrival is what forces the update.
The questions we expected to answer in December are on the table now.
How much of the year’s upside is already spent?
What is an Iran deal actually worth if it finally signs, and what breaks if it collapses a third time?
And if the inflation scare fades, what does the market do with an economy that has quietly been losing speed underneath it?
On the Iran question, you know where we stand.
If you have been following us on X and inside the Inner Ring this year, you know the record: the strikes called before almost anyone thought them possible, the oil spike called behind them, the top of the oil apocalypse trade called while the experts were still screaming it higher.
On that file we have run ahead of virtually everyone on the platform, and the update below takes a clear position on how it ends.
Below is the full updated 2026 S&P 500 Forecast for Inner Ring subscribers.
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