who gets to form Ethiopia's government?

Hi there,

I’m back in your inbox after skipping a week. Last week’s publishing day for Sifter fell on election day, where I spent some 3 hours of the day waiting in line to vote (I managed!). This week’s edition will be mostly on the events surrounding said elections.

I’m part of a monitoring group tracking violence against women during this election cycle. Our team of ten people has been speaking to political candidates, voters, and election observers, documenting incidents for a final assessment report that we hope will help in understanding this election better. In this edition, I share a couple of updates on our work. If this is something you’d like to learn more about, reply to this email and let me know. We want to get the word out.

My name is Maya Misikir, and I’m a freelance reporter based in Addis Abeba. I write Sifter, this newsletter where I send out the week’s top 5 human rights stories in Ethiopia.

Now, to the news.

The numbers behind Ethiopia’s 7th general election look impressive. More than 50 million registered to vote - the highest growth in new voters recorded across all previous 7 general elections. From this number, nearly 40 million of us actually cast our vote last Monday.

More than 126,000 military personnel and 29,000 internally displaced persons will take their turn to vote by Tuesday (June 9).

Was there any question about who would win this election?

Here’s an excerpt from a report by Ethiopia Insider on past election results for some context:

…it is recalled that the ruling party formed a government following landslide victories, securing 99.6 percent of the parliamentary seats in the 2010 election, 100 percent in the 2015 election, and 97 percent (of contested seats) in the 6th general elections (the 2021 elections).

Here’s another telling number from this election cycle: in 65 parliamentary constituencies, candidates from the ruling Prosperity Party ran without opposition.

There are 547 seats in Ethiopia’s parliament.

Only two political parties in this election cycle have, “managed to register the minimum number of parliamentary seats (more than 274 candidates) required to form a government”, explains the Ethiopia Insider report.

The first is the incumbent Prosperity Party. The other is an opposition political party, Ethiopian Citizens for Social Justice (EZEMA).

Here’s another excerpt from the report:

However, as the leader of EZEMA, Eyob Mesafint, stated, although EZEMA is the only opposition party that fielded a sufficient number of candidates to form a federal government, it has a “managed expectation” that it will not emerge as a winner to form a government in this year’s contest, beyond increasing the number of its candidates entering parliament.

The full report, which includes a detailed breakdown on the numbers of political parties and candidates running for office, as well as an explanation of why these numbers can’t add up to a win for anyone but the Prosperity Party, on Ethiopia Insider, here.

If the winners of this election seem already known, why are opposition political parties running?

Opposition political party candidate Mistresilasie Tamerat, who leads the Ethiopian People’s Revolutionary Party, says this is a decision “that comes less from optimism than from a belief that silence would amount to surrender.”

Here’s an excerpt from a story on The Continent:

“I entered politics to bring change and I refuse to be a silent observer of what’s happening in my country.”

What other reasons are there? Here’s another line from a story on the BBC:

Prof Merera Gurdina, a veteran opposition politician and member of the Oromo Federalist Congress, alleges the upcoming election is the least competitive in Ethiopia’s recent history.

“We are participating symbolically because the law says you cannot boycott elections consecutively. We are participating, mainly to avoid deregistration,”

The full story on The Continent, here, and on the BBC, here.

Not everyone took part in the 7th general elections.

Ethiopia’s Tigray region was entirely excluded, as were parts of the country’s Oromia and Amhara regions.

Why was that? Here’s an excerpt from a story on Deutsche Welle (DW):

…citing insecurity, officials suspended voting in at least 140 constituencies in two of the most populous regions: Amhara and Oromia.

Voting was also suspended in Tigray, the fourth-most-populous region, with election organizers citing “unfavorable conditions.”

Suspended voting in these areas “indicates the impact of unresolved conflicts” adds the story.

Meanwhile, local authorities across Tigray region are carrying out widespread forced military conscription, according to a new investigation by Human Rights First–Ethiopia.

The full story on DW, here, and highlights on the investigation on Wegahta Facts, here.

From the 2,080 political candidates registered to compete for parliamentary seats in this election, less than 25% were women.

Here’s an excerpt from a report on Ethiopia Today:

Of the 40 political parties and coalitions that registered candidates for Parliament, 12 failed to field a single female candidate.

This is despite the legally mandated financial benefits for political parties that have women as members, candidates, or in leadership positions.

One of the reporters on our monitoring team, who reached out to the parties with no women's representation, was told by one party that having women as candidates would decrease its chances of winning.

Since mid-April, when our monitoring group started tracking incidents of violence against women, we have logged more than 100 cases. These cases include arrests, intimidation, and sexual assault. Some of these cases have resulted in women candidates dropping out of the race.

I’ll include more details in the coming editions.

The full report by Ethiopia Today, here.

That’s all for this week. I’ll catch you next Monday.

In the meantime, if you know someone who might be interested in this, share and let them know!

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