Markets Rise, But Global Risks Keep Bulls in Check!

Hello Investors,

Welcome to the daily market brief!

Yesterday was a good day for bulls as we saw a solid move in headline indices. But beneath the surface, we saw some weakness. And even though Mr. Market is holding up for now, global macro factors are not in favour. Check our analysis here.

On top of that, the Q4FY26 Results Season has started on a mixed footing. While some names are reporting strong numbers, the IT sector has let us down, and it is currently being punished in the market. Use our latest (and more powerful than ever) earnings tracker to track all the Q4 earnings. Watch this video to explore everything this tool can do.

Q4 Earnings Update

Before we dive deep into yesterday’s market moves, we have a couple of important announcements to make.

1. We have added some really useful widgets to our terminal. Now the terminal is more powerful than ever. Check more about it here.

2. We are hosting a YouTube live session this Saturday. We will analyse the Q4 Results Season till now, and also answer all your questions live. Click on the image below and hit the ‘Notify me’ button, so you don’t miss.

Now, let’s talk about the market moves of yesterday.

The Indian markets saw a sharp recovery as the new May series began, though late-session profit-booking trimmed some of the earlier gains.

• Nifty 50: 24,177.65 (+0.76% | +181.30 pts)

• BSE Sensex: 77,496.36 (+0.79% | +609 pts)

• Bank Nifty: 55,404 (Flat) - Lagged the main indices significantly.

• Nifty Midcap 100: Closed marginally lower, showing selective buying.

• Nifty Smallcap 100: 18,245 (+0.65%) - Outperformed the midcaps.

• Sentiment Drivers:

  • New Trade Deal: Optimism followed the signing of the India-New Zealand Free Trade Agreement.

  • Energy Pressure: Brent Crude hitting $115/bbl and the Rupee touching record lows (94.85) kept the “bulls” in check.

  • Mixed Data: Industrial production (IIP) slowed to a 5-month low of 4.1%, cooling some enthusiasm.

A lot of sectors ended the day in the green.

• Best Performers:

  • FMCG (+1.75%) and Realty (1.49%) were the top two gainers.

  • Auto and Consumption also closed the day with 1%+ gains.

• Worst Performers:

  • PSU Bank index was down by 0.41%.

You can find all indices along with their daily moves, and fundamental & technical data points on our index analysis tool (it is free!), as shown in the image below.

We have the best tool to identify sector rotations. Explore which sectors/stocks are leading and lagging on our RRG chart.

Gainers:

Losers:

Institutional investors are playing a game of “tug-of-war.”

• FIIs (Foreign Investors): Net Sellers of ₹2468 Crore.

• DIIs (Domestic Investors): Net Buyers of ₹2262 Crore.

• Context: FIIs have been persistent sellers this month (over ₹52,000 Cr sold in April), but domestic funds (DIIs) are heroically absorbing the pressure, preventing a market crash.

Track FII/DII flows across market segments with our Institutional Flow Dashboard.

• OPEC Shakeup: The UAE’s decision to exit OPEC (effective May 1) has sent shockwaves through energy markets.

• US Port Blockade: Reports of a potential U.S. blockade of Iranian ports have pushed Brent Crude above $110.

• Fed Watch: Markets stayed cautious as the Federal Reserve left rates unchanged but noted that inflation remains “elevated.”

• Big Tech Earnings: Alphabet (Google) and Amazon reported strong AI-led growth, but Meta and Microsoft saw price drops due to high spending concerns.

• US Markets: Mixed. Dow (-0.57%), Nasdaq (+0.57%), S&P 500 (-0.04%).

• Asian Markets: Generally cautious; Japan’s Nikkei showing slight recovery after recent falls.

• US 10-Year Bond Yield: Currently at 4.42% (Upward trend, making equities less attractive).

• Gold Price: Down. Currently around $4,580/oz as a strong US Dollar and profit-booking weigh on the metal.

• Crude Oil: Up. Brent is hovering near $111/bbl due to the UAE-OPEC exit and Iran tensions.

• GIFT Nifty: Indicating a cautious start (-0.24%); watching the 24,300 level closely.

• Key Levels: Support at 24,050; Resistance at 24,335 (yesterday’s high).

• Positive Factors: Strong domestic buying (DIIs) and positive “Big Tech” cues from the US.

• Risks: Record low Rupee and surging oil prices could trigger sudden sell-offs.

Investor Takeaways:

1. Watch the Rupee: If the INR continues to slide past 94.85, expect more FII selling.

2. Watch Earnings: Companies reporting strong earnings are being rewarded in the market. So, keep an eye on the stocks that are reporting strong Q4 numbers. They can become the leader in the coming weeks.

3. Patience is Key: The market is “Sell-on-Rise” near 24,300. Don’t chase the rally blindly.

PS: Follow us on X to get timely updates on markets and stocks.

That is it for today! See you tomorrow.