Trailing by two points in a runoff has never looked so good.
The latest results from the Alameda County Registrar of Voters show State Sen. Aisha Wahab at 51% and BART Board President Melissa Hernandez at 49% in Tuesday’s special election to fill the remainder of former Rep. Eric Swalwell’s term, which ends in January. The next ballot drop won’t happen until Friday. The fact that Hernandez has so substantially narrowed the double-digit lead Wahab had after the June primary has people looking ahead to November, when the two Democrats will face off once again to determine who will fill the full two-year term.
Months ago, Wahab, the progressive in the race, was seen as the shoo-in. But in the campaign’s final stretch, Hernandez nearly doubled her fundraising haul. Outside interest groups backing Hernandez spent more than $6 million — the bulk of it to fund attack ads against Wahab.
Even if Hernandez doesn’t come out on top in the special election, she’s got serious momentum for the next face-off. New district lines, approved by voters under Proposition 50, which will be in effect for November, bring in more voters from Dublin, where Hernandez served as mayor. The interest groups that spent more than $6 million to boost Hernandez and attack Wahab got the validation they needed to keep pouring money into the race. And as the more moderate candidate, Hernandez may pick up crossover support from centrist Democrats and Republicans who sat out the low-turnout special election. Such elections are typically dominated by more committed base voters.
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