We have about a month to go until the primary election, and this year, thanks to the Jungle Primary, there are 17 candidates in the race for governor. With so many candidates, and with only four of them making it through to the general election, anything could happen. That being said, here is how the candidates are currently polling today, along with some thoughts on each of them.
There have been two recent polls for the governor’s race, which are summarized in Table 1.
Democrats do well in both polls. Tom Begich is currently the leading vote getter in the primary, and Jonathan Kreiss-Tompkins is also in the top three. However, before Democrats get too excited, they should remember that only 3 of the 17 current candidates are Democrats, meaning the Republicans are splitting their votes between many more candidates. The Ds might win the primary, but polling will change drastically after the candidates are reduced to just four people for the general election.
Candidates Who Will Be in the Top Four
These are the four candidates that the most recent polls say will win the primary.
Tom Begich will win the Democratic nomination, but that doesn’t say much. Both his professional and political careers have been devoid of any significant accomplishment. He has done nothing deserving of being governor. Begich’s biggest asset is his last name and the fact that people say he is a nice guy. People might vote for him for those reasons; Mary Peltola won her House seat using that strategy. Since he is the most well-known Democratic candidate, we will probably see another Begich in the general election running for governor.
Dave Bronson is a consummate politician with significant executive experience. He is outspoken in his support of conservative principles, which will resonate with Republicans. Bronson’s biggest challenges are the unanswered questions about his time as Anchorage’s mayor. He had a confrontational relationship with the liberal Anchorage assembly, which isn’t necessarily a bad thing, but the Anchorage voters evidently weren’t too impressed. Bronson lost his reelection for mayor when Anchorage voters chose a left-wing Democrat to replace him. Now, Bronson is running for governor, but many people are skeptical that if elected, his term would be a repeat of his failed time leading Alaska’s largest city.
Jonathan Kreiss-Tompkins is a relative unknown and might make the final four, but only because he is one of just three Democrats running. Kreiss-Tompkins will have little following outside of Southeast Alaska. He has a weak list of accomplishments and little experience to prepare him for the job. Should Kreiss-Tompkins make it past the primary, he will siphon votes away from Tom Begich in the general election, hurting both of their chances. For that reason, Kreiss-Tompkins could get some crossover votes in the primary from Republicans who will be cheering him on, but only because he hurts the election chances of Tom Begich.
Bernadette Wilson is a telegenic individual who has never won political office before. She has been active on the periphery of conservative politics since 2010 and supports the repeal of the Ranked Choice Voting system Alaska has been stuck with for 4 years. Wilson is the most MAGA-ish candidate in the race. She resonates with conservatives and leads some polls for Republicans. Her biggest challenge is her lack of political experience. Voters worry if Wilson is strong enough to stand up to Alaska’s legislature, which would attempt to dominate her in Juneau, just as it has pushed Mike Dunleavy around for the past 8 years. Conservatives are looking for a champion, and Wilson may be that person, but she will have to prove in the campaign that she is tough enough for the job.
Candidates Who Need a Break to Make the Top Four
These candidates are on the outside looking in, but they still have a small chance at being in the top four if things break just right for them.
Click Bishop is from Fairbanks, and he might resonate with residents in the interior and in rural Alaska, who are often overlooked. Bishop may also get some crossover support from some Ds in bush Alaska, because he is known for being a consensus builder who is willing to work with Democrats. At one time in Alaska politics, that was an asset, but Republicans are looking for a strong champion, not another marshmallow that the legislature will push around. Bishop has one small window of opportunity, but probably won’t make the cut.
Adam Crum has a surprising amount of support from people on the lower Kenai Peninsula, probably because he grew up in the Anchor Point/Homer area. People also support him because Crum was the first candidate to be on the right side of the important Grand Jury issue. He took a position opposing the Supreme Court’s nullification of Alaska Grand Jury rights and vowed to correct this issue before any other candidate recognized it was important to voters. Crum’s biggest challenge will be to overcome some of the controversies from his time as a Commissioner in the Dunleavy administration. If voters can get past that, he has a chance. His biggest challenge is whether he will have broader support from around the state, rather than just on the Kenai.
Edna DeVries is a strong conservative leader and is pitch-perfect on all issues important to conservative voters. If Devries were the only Republican in this race, she would be the next governor of Alaska. Unfortunately for her, she and Shelly Hughes are the same person: strong conservative women with legislative experience from the Mat-Su. They will take votes from each other and may end up knocking each other out of the race.
Shelly Hughes was once a strong favorite to make the final four, and she may still do so, but some are starting to question the strength of her conservative positions. While being on the right side of most issues important to conservatives, Hughes made a major faux pas by saying she would allow the legislature to keep taking part of Alaskans PFD checks. Worse yet, when she was criticized for her position on the issue, she doubled down. There are times when everyone makes a mistake, and when they do, wise people say, “Sorry, I was wrong, and I will learn from it”. Hughes hasn’t done that on the PFD issue. Sticking by a bad decision isn’t a strength; it is mule-headedness, and I hope one of her supporters will give her a copy of Trump’s book, The Art of the Deal; she could learn something from it. Hughes’s promising campaign has lost a bit of steam. She still might make the final four, but will need to get better at politicking if she wants to be governor.
Candidates With Zero Chance in the Primary
The following candidates have no chance of being in the top four after the primary.
Treg Taylor resigned from his position as Alaska’s Attorney General to run for governor. While AG Taylor was the main person responsible for implementing the Supreme Court’s unconstitutional order, SCO1993. This order changed the Alaska Constitution by judicial fiat and ended constitutional Grand Jury rights in Alaska. Taylor failed to do his job defending Alaska’s Constitution. Since he failed as AG, there is no reason to give him a promotion. Taylor should not only lose the primary election, but he should also be required to wear a dunce cap and write on a chalkboard for the next four years, “I will do my job and obey the Constitution…”
Bill Walker was the governor who first decided to steal part of every Alaskan’s Permanent Fund Dividend back in 2016. Now he wants to do it again. After first bribing us with one final large check, he wants to take the PFD away forever. Alaskans got fooled into voting for this knucklehead once before; they won’t make the same mistake again.
These predictions for the Governor’s race were made based on two polls that were conducted in late June and early July, but the only important poll will be on primary election day, August 18th. Whichever candidates make it past the primary election will do so with very small vote percentages. Every vote will count, so be sure to get out and support the candidate you believe will best lead our state.
Citations:
https://sewardsfolly.substack.com/p/edna-devries-has-what-it-takes-to
https://sewardsfolly.substack.com/p/edna-devries-has-what-it-takes-to
https://sewardsfolly.substack.com/p/shelly-hughes-big-blunder
https://mustreadalaska.com/opinion-empty-promises-dont-pay-dividends-shelley-hughes-defends-her-take-on-the-pfd/
https://sewardsfolly.substack.com/p/treg-taylor-strikes-out-with-soldotna
https://sewardsfolly.substack.com/p/bill-walker-plans-to-pick-your-pocket
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