A rotation to happen from oil into natural gas?

Let's start by talking about US10Y.

I shared my thoughts on going long on this target on April 6th, and actually entered the position on the 7th. (Without access to US10Y, I actually shorted TLT.)

The timeframe for this trade is a maximum holding period of 6 months, roughly until the end of September/beginning of October.But the market has been moving quite quickly these past few days, so let's just wait and see.

AAPL 0.00%↑ short:

Context: At the time I identified this potential shorting opportunity, the MAG7 index was still trending higher within its broader upward movement. MAG7 tracks a basket of 7 technology stocks that have been leading broader market gains in recent months.

The only potential short entry point was on March 1st. However, I didn't notice this opportunity until the weekend market close on March 3rd (as I don't typically follow this stock closely). I planned to enter the short position first thing when the market opened on Monday. In reality, that Monday it immediately gapped down, and I missed the move.

Opportunities to enter at such favorable levels don't often reoccur. It would be disingenuous of me to say I wasn't annoyed (I thought I had it pegged, and it likely did impact some of my subsequent decisions). When I next identified and actually entered was at the position of the black circle. Ultimately, I was stopped out after moving my stop loss to the horizontal line level.

Had I entered at the proper location, there is a high probability I would have still held this short trade, as entering lower without the same advantage resulted in me adjusting my stop loss more quickly than normal.

P.S - The original trade timeframe for this position could realistically have been held for up to six months. I was early!

The relationship between crude oil and natural gas prices was approaching levels last seen in 2012. Meanwhile, natural gas seemed to be building a base after its prior dip and was showing improving relative strength metrics versus oil.This suggested to me the possibility of at least a short-term rotation out of oil and into natural gas. Such shifts between energy commodities aren't uncommon when sentiment reaches extremes. The technical picture seemed to support gas as the commodity more likely to beginning appreciating if this rotation played out.

Of course, rotations are often difficult to time precisely. But assessing the underlying dynamics between oil and gas was part of what made me willing to take a bullish view on natgas's prospects(at least near-term).