Why Hasn't the Economy Crashed Despite Trump's Bungling?

Hi, I’m Elizabeth England. Co-host of SOS.

Before I was a film producer, I spent seventeen years in military service. I’ve worked in military intelligence, trained Special Forces soldiers, served as a Chaplain’s Assistant, managed complex projects, and spent much of my adult life evaluating information rather than reacting to it.

That experience taught me something simple: if you’re looking for the truth, start by questioning your own assumptions.

I’m neither an economist nor a politician. I’m simply an American who believes we owe each other honest conversations grounded in facts instead of slogans.

Which brings me to a question I’ve been asking myself for months.

If tariffs, war in the Middle East, soaring gasoline prices, labor shortages caused by mass deportations, and constant political turmoil are all headwinds for an economy...

...why hasn’t America’s economy crashed?

I think the answer is both simpler—and more interesting—than many people on either side of the political aisle want to admit.

For months I’ve heard predictions that America’s economy was about to collapse.

Tariffs would sink it. War would sink it. Deportations would sink it.

Yet here we are.

The economy has slowed in places, families are still struggling with the cost of living, and uncertainty remains high. But the catastrophic crash so many predicted simply hasn’t happened.

Why?

Because economies don’t turn on a dime.

They’re more like giant ships than speedboats. The policies of one administration often don’t fully reveal their effects until years later.

President Biden made some significant mistakes. He failed to get control of the southern border early enough. He didn’t fully grasp the economic frustrations facing many young Americans. He chose Merrick Garland as Attorney General, a decision many Democrats came to regret. And he stayed in the presidential race far too long. I could go on.

But love him or hate him, President Biden also left office with a strong economy.

Inflation had fallen dramatically from its peak. Unemployment remained low. Consumer spending remained resilient. Historic investments in infrastructure, semiconductor manufacturing, clean energy, and American industry were already underway. Those projects didn’t disappear on Inauguration Day. They continued creating jobs, attracting private investment, and strengthening the economy long after the transfer of power.

What surprises me most is what that economy has already absorbed.

We’ve seen sweeping Trump tariffs that raise costs throughout the supply chain. We’ve seen the war with Iran disrupt global oil markets, sending gasoline prices soaring. We’ve seen mass deportations and immigration restrictions shrink the labor force in agriculture, construction, hospitality, food processing, and other industries that have long depended on immigrant workers.

Any one of those shocks could have seriously weakened an economy. Together, they represent an extraordinary stress test.

So why hasn’t the economy crashed?

Because Donald Trump inherited an economy with far more strength, momentum, and resilience than he or his supporters care to acknowledge.

He’s been spending down an economic inheritance.

The Biden economy created a cushion large enough to absorb tariffs, soaring fuel costs, labor shortages, political chaos, and war—at least so far.

But a cushion is not bottomless.

Families are paying more at the pump. Businesses are paying more for imported goods. Farmers, builders, restaurants, and manufacturers are struggling to replace workers lost through deportation policies. Every one of those pressures chips away at purchasing power and raises the cost of doing business.

The fact that the economy hasn’t crashed is not proof that Trump’s policies are working.

It’s evidence of how strong the economy was before those policies began taking their toll.

A well-built house can withstand a reckless owner for a while.

That doesn’t mean he isn’t damaging it.

Meantime, keeping the economy rolling despite Trump’s bungling is a self sustaining form of resistance. And keep your fingers crossed that the economy holds until Trump and his cronies are voted out.

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