Russian Attack on NATO

New U.S. intelligence assessments warn that Russian President Vladimir Putin could attempt to test NATO’s resolve with a limited attack on an allied country within the next few years, potentially between fall 2026 and 2029. Possible scenarios range from cyber and hybrid attacks to the deployment of unmarked armed groups or, in the most serious case, a limited military incursion on NATO’s eastern flank.

The assessment marks a shift in U.S. thinking. Washington previously believed Putin was unlikely to directly challenge NATO while Russia remained engaged in the war against Ukraine. That view reportedly changed earlier this year as Russia came under increasing pressure, with heavy battlefield casualties, limited territorial gains, and Ukrainian deep strikes inflicting growing damage on Russian military and energy infrastructure.